Tremont Director Analyzes Urban Turnout in Historic Mid-Term Election

Despite wins, CT Democrats confront 'big drop off' in city turnout

John Moritz

One area of concern for Connecticut Democrats after sweeping midterm election: turnout in cities

Nov. 11, 2022 9:05 p.m.

Others noted that despite Lamont’s support for policies that are popular with many city residents — such as a $15 minimum wage, and an expanded earned income tax credit — those achievements were not highlighted well enough by the campaign. 

“There didn’t seem to be a specifically targeted approach to get messages about those things to urban voters,” said Matt Hennessy, a Democratic consultant based in Hartford, who added that Republicans “suppressed” turnout in cities with mailers depicting the governor as a racist.

https://www.ctinsider.com/politics/article/CT-Democrats-midterm-turnout-Bridgeport-New-Haven-17577844.php

Will cities deliver again for Lamont?

Dan Haar

Lamont defends urban strongholds against a Stefanowski push

Nov. 3, 2022Updated: Nov. 3, 2022 5:37 a.m.

“Democratic Party activists are asking themselves whether voters will recognize the large investments Lamont has made in cities; whether the ground game is getting that message across, Matthew Hennessy, a public affairs consultant and former city official in Hartford, said this week. 

"For all the struggles that our voters have had in these urban communities, does that filter down? That’s the real question," he said.

As for a prediction: "I think he’s going to do better than he’s done in suburban communities. That may offset any trouble that might emerge in the urban communities."

https://www.ctinsider.com/connecticut/article/Lamont-Stefanowski-cities-New-Haven-Bridgeport-17554488.php

Tremont Director Weighs In On National Democrats' Chances in November

Democrats Have Reason for Hope — but How Much?

The midterms are not looking like a total bloodbath for Democrats, like they were a few weeks ago. The GOP still looks like it will do quite nicely, however.

GOVERNING

Aug. 16, 2022 •

Alan Greenblatt

“That makes it hard for Republicans, especially in suburban districts,” says Matthew Hennessy, a Democratic consultant based in Connecticut. “The issues around abortion, gun control, inflation and gas prices, those all seem to be breaking Biden’s way, and the Democrats’ way.”

Hennessy concedes that about 45 days ago, Democrats looked like they were heading into a world of hurt. The fundamentals that matter most in elections, such as presidential approval ratings and economic indicators, were all pointing down for the party. Consumer sentiment has ticked up a bit, although it remains well below where it was this time last year.

https://www.governing.com/now/democrats-have-reason-for-hope-but-how-much

Tremont Director Discusses Recent Connecticut Poll on NBC

In a new survey, Tremont Public Advisors found that fewer Connecticut residents think the state is heading in the right direction. The survey found 54 percent of people believe Connecticut is on the right track; a decrease from 57 percent in November 2021.

NBC Connecticut’s Dan Corcoran spoke with Matt Hennessy, the Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors.

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/growing-number-of-residents-think-conn-is-on-wrong-track-survey/2719599/

MOST CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS SAY STATE HEADED IN RIGHT DIRECTION

TO: Clients of Tremont Public Advisors & Interested Parties

FROM: Matt Hennessy, Managing Director

DATE:  February 11, 2022

RE: Public Opinion Survey of Connecticut Residents on Direction of State

Introduction:

Between 2/7/22 – 2/11/22 Tremont Public Advisors conducted an on-line survey of 1,027 adult Connecticut residents to determine if they believed “things are going generally in the right direction, or are seriously headed on the wrong track in Connecticut”.  Tremont Public Advisors released the results of a survey asking the same question of Connecticut residents in November of 2021. [i]  The results of that survey showed 57% of Connecticut residents felt things were headed in the right direction in Connecticut compared to 43% who felt the state was on the wrong track.

February 2022 Survey Results:

·       The number of residents believing things were headed in the right direction in Connecticut dropped from 57% in November 2021 to 54% in February 2022.

·       The number of residents that felt Connecticut was on the wrong track increased from 43% in November of 2021 to 46% in February 2022.

·       Women were the demographic that showed the greatest decrease from 2021 of those believing Connecticut was heading in the right direction. They went from +16 right direction (58-42) to +10 right direction (55-45) in 2022.

Implications:

The majority of Connecticut residents continue to buck national trends[ii] and believe the state is headed in the “right direction”. This should give businesses and policy makers an indication residents have an optimistic view of Connecticut’s near-term future. That being said, it is worth identifying the key issues likely driving the increase in those concerned the state is headed down the wrong track.

Recent publicly available polling shows the public is focused primarily on the issues of inflation/jobs and the Covid-19 pandemic[iii][iv].The response by policy makers to these issues likely play an important role in whether or not Connecticut residents believe the state is headed on the “wrong track”. However, based on their partisan leanings, residents can come to that conclusion for entirely different reasons[v].

COVID-19

Generally speaking, most voters have been supportive of common-sense safety measures against Covid-19 transmission. During the period around and after our November 2021 survey, Connecticut policy makers had adopted a number (but not all) of the policies/interventions to prevent the worst impacts that, according to recent polling, had considerable public support.

·       Most voters support mandating vaccinations for indoor activities including eating in a restaurant or going to the gym.[vi]

·       Most voters support vaccine mandates in the workplace[vii]

·       Most voters support mask mandates in schools[viii][ix][x][xi]

·       Most voters support the free distribution of Covid tests and masks.[xii]

However, national polling has shown there is a sharp partisan divide. Most Republican voters (89%) agree that it is time to “accept that Covid is here to stay and we just need to get on with our lives." Most Democrats (51%) disagree with that statement.[xiii]

Since the Tremont November 2, 2021 survey showing 57% of Connecticut residents believed the state was in the right direction, there have been a number of developments:

·       1,443 Connecticut residents died from Covid between 11/4/21 and 2/10/22.

·       On 1/20/22 Connecticut announced it was ending its vaccine mandate and testing requirements for state employees and teachers[xiv].

·       State officials decided to lift the mask mandate in K-12 schools by the end of February[xv].

·       The Centers for Disease Control reiterated its support of universal K-12 masking in schools.[xvi]

With hospitalizations and Covid infections approximately 153% and 97% higher respectively than early November 2021, it appears that Connecticut policy makers have decided ending testing mandates and K-12 masking requirements are the best way to indicate empathy for the majority of voters who are “frustrated” with the pandemic.[xvii]  It remains to be seen whether these policy choices to lift mandates (which are controversial in their own right)  [xviii] will result in increased numbers of residents who feel Connecticut is headed in the right direction.

INFLATION/JOBS

Inflation and jobs are the other key concern of voters[xix] according to national polling. Inflation and, to a lesser extent job creation, are outside state government control in the short term. However, resident perception of the government response to these issues will inform opinions on whether Connecticut is headed in the right direction.

·       Between December 2020 and December 2021, Connecticut experienced its greatest drop in unemployment since at least 1976.[xx]

·       In 2021, Connecticut’s unemployment rate exceeded that of the U.S. every month.

·       Connecticut’s Labor Force Participation Rate (63.5%) exceeds that of the U.S. (61.9%)[xxi]

·       Inflation has had an uneven impact on Connecticut residents with the cost of gas increasing and the cost of ground beef declining from a year ago.[xxii]

To the extent policy leaders can point to initiatives targeted at job creation and mitigating the impacts of inflation, this may also bring the number down of those who believe the state is on the “wrong track”.

What to watch for:

Connecticut policy makers are generally much better off when most constituents believe that things are headed in the right direction. What might impact that perception over the next couple of months?

·       Spikes in Covid infection and illness in K-12 students – Will residents blame policymakers for ending school mask mandates in contravention of CDC guidance during a period of community spread?

·       Spikes in Covid infections in adults – Does the introduction of a new variant in Connecticut raises concerns with those supportive of previous mandates?

·       Do Covid infections drop to a persistent but manageable number?

·       Does Connecticut’s steady reduction in unemployment finally reach the national average?

·       Does inflation slow, allowing the growth of Connecticut wages to mitigate the impact on the purchase of basic household goods?

It is likely the pandemic and inflation/jobs will continue to be the key issues driving public perception of the well-being of Connecticut for months to come.

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about our polling here: (https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor)

Poll Methodology

Between 02/7/22 and 2/11/22 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,027 Connecticut residents over age 18 who expressed an opinion about the direction of the state using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 2.5%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.                                               

[i] https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2021/11/2/latest-poll-connecticut-residents-say-state-is-on-the-right-track

[ii] https://morningconsult.com/form/right-direction-wrong-track/

[iii] https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-january-2022/

[iv] https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-joe-biden-business-health-elections-bb16c5c52e2bf719ec8a0c5415aaf66c

[v] https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/why-everyone-agrees-america-wrong-track-n1288206

[vi] Q.53 https://60p3co1nax34ovc830mr2sak-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/January-2022-Omnibus-COVID-TOPLINE.pdf

[vii] https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/19/employer-covid-vaccine-mandate-supreme-court-poll/

[viii] https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/heres-what-pa-voters-in-the-f-m-poll-said-about-biden-masks-in-schools/article_a63e9644-3766-11ec-82cc-9bcce6369f6e.html

[ix] https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-mask-vaccine-mandate-schools-poll/2021/09/22/624309fa-1b16-11ec-bcb8-0cb135811007_story.html

[x] https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2021/08/23/majority-of-americans-but-fewer-parents-support-school-mask-mandates-and-vaccine-requirements-poll-finds/?sh=6e730b7238cf

[xi] https://www.providencejournal.com/story/news/education/2022/01/27/poll-ri-parents-on-covid-and-schools-urban-suburban-learning-loss/9225714002/

[xii] https://morningconsult.com/2022/01/26/free-n95-masks-covid-rapid-tests-biden-administration/

[xiii] Q.33 Crosstabs https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmouthpoll_us_013122.pdf/

[xiv] https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/coronavirus/vaccine-mandate-for-state-employees-teachers-can-expire-lamont/2694891/

[xv] https://www.ctinsider.com/news/article/Lamont-Decision-on-school-masks-in-CT-could-be-16822906.php

[xvi] https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-cdc-stands-by-k-12-school-masking-guidance-states-relax-rules-walensky-2022-02-08/

[xvii] https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/poll-finding/kff-covid-19-vaccine-monitor-january-2022/

[xviii] https://www.axios.com/axios-ipsos-poll-covid-acceptance-but-indecision-211212c1-733e-482f-9f4f-026e9de727bb.html

[xix] https://www.ctinsider.com/business/article/As-inflation-surges-Connecticut-families-16772196.php

[xx] https://www1.ctdol.state.ct.us/lmi/unempratectus.asp

[xxi] https://www.jec.senate.gov/cards/ct/

[xxii] https://www.jec.senate.gov/cards/ct/

LATEST POLL: CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS SAY STATE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK

CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS SAY STATE IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK

Survey of 1,352 Connecticut residents shows most believe state is headed in the right direction

11/2/2021

Contact: Tremont Public Advisors 860-200-8503

Hartford – Bucking national trends, a survey of Connecticut residents shows that they believe the state is headed in the right direction. The public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,352 Connecticut residents between 10/28-10/31/21 in which 57% of respondents indicated they believed the state was headed in the right direction as opposed to 43% who felt Connecticut was seriously headed on the wrong track. The results of this survey contrast with recent national polling indicating that most Americans believe the country is headed in the wrong direction[1][2]. 

“The results of this survey are good news for Connecticut businesses and the leaders of state government. No matter the concerns Connecticut residents may have about the direction of our nation as a whole, they feel fairly optimistic about Connecticut’s future.” stated Matt Hennessy managing director of Tremont Public Advisors. “If residents believe our state is headed in the right direction, they are more likely to have positive expectations of economic growth which is good for businesses. Residents are also more likely to look favorably on the policies by state leaders they believe steered Connecticut on a positive path.”

Survey Results

Q.1

Thinking about recent events in Connecticut, would you say things are going generally in the right direction, or are seriously headed on the wrong track in Connecticut?                                                            

Right Direction                                                           57%    

Wrong Track                                                              43%                            

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about our polling here: (https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor)

About Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors: Recognized as one of the top political consultants in the United States by Campaigns and Elections Magazine, Matt has served as an adviser to multiple campaigns for federal, state and local office, as well as a range of high-profile corporations and organizations.

Methodology

Between 10/28/21 and 10/31/21 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,352 Connecticut residents over age 18 who expressed an opinion about the direction of the state using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 2.5%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.

[1] Morning Consult Poll 62% “wrong track”  https://morningconsult.com/form/right-direction-wrong-track/

[2] Rasmussen Reports only 29% “right direction” https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/right_direction_wrong_track_nov01

TREMONT PUBLIC ADVISORS JOINS SUPREME COURT BRIEF IN DEFENSE OF THE VOTING RIGHTS ACT

1/22/21

Contact: Tremont Public Advisors 860-200-8503

Hartford – This past Tuesday, Tremont Public Advisors joined 73 businesses and 224 business leaders in filing an Amicus Brief in the United States Supreme Court supporting efforts to prevent the State of Arizona from gutting key provisions of the Voting Rights Act.

The cases, MARK BRNOVICH, ATTORNEY GENERAL OF ARIZONA, ET AL., Petitioners,  v.  DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL., Respondents and  ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PARTY, ET AL., Petitioners,  v.  DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE, ET AL., involve provisions of Arizona election law which dis-proportionally result in minority voters from casting votes or having their votes properly counted.

As the brief states: “Business leaders have a strong interest in this case given that the strength of America’s economy and markets rests on one of the founding principles of our democracy:  the right to vote.  Just as companies have affirmed their interests in a diverse and inclusive workforce, which has been correlated with better economic performance, a fully representative democracy relies on a  diverse  and  inclusive  voting  population protected by the Voting Rights Act of 1965,…  and  is  vital  to  creating an environment that fosters economic growth and prosperity in the United States.”

“Tremont Public Advisors is proud to join nearly three hundred businesses and business leaders in support of protecting the basic rights of our citizens to vote. Our nation can only reach its full potential if we have a vibrant and inclusive democracy. These last few weeks have shown how important it is to carefully guard the building blocks of our republic from those who would disenfranchise millions of voters to gain political power.” stated Matthew Hennessy Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors.

 You can read the brief here: https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/19/19-1257/166786/20210120113945519_Nos.%2019-1257bsacVoting%20Rights%20Act%20Amicus%20Brief%20of%20Business%20Leaders.pdf

SURVEY OF ALABAMA RESIDENTS SHOWS JONES MAY STILL HAVE PATH TO VICTORY

High Number of AL Residents Remain Undecided, Tuberville Has Solid Lead Among Decided

 10/8/20

Contact: Tremont Public Advisors 860-200-8503

Results of a survey of 1,624 Alabama residents by the public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors show incumbent Senator Doug Jones may still have a path to victory on Election Day if residents who remain undecided about which Senate candidate “shares their values”[i] break substantially in his direction and vote. The survey showed that Tuberville had a 16-point lead over Jones among decided residents which is consistent with the results of an on-line survey released on 10/5 by Auburn University at Montgomery’s Department of Political Science and Public Administration. However, the Tremont survey results differ in that Tuberville did not reached the 50% threshold of support and a third of residents are unsure if he shares their values.

“Though Tommy Tuberville retains a solid lead, a path to victory remains for Senator Doug Jones by convincing residents, particularly women, that he shares their values and then activating them to vote. If the Jones campaign has the resources to expand the universe of Alabama residents participating in the election, he may have the ability to change the dynamics of the race.” stated Matt Hennessy Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “Further, though Tuberville has benefited from his close association with President Trump, that association may become a liability if a larger portion of Alabama residents become concerned about Trump’s judgement and fitness for office in the next few weeks.”

Between 10/5/20 and 10/8/20 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,624 Alabama residents using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The choices of candidates were shown to respondents in a random order. The poll population consisted of Alabama internet users over age 18 viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%. Respondents were not screened to determine if they were registered/likely voters.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Alabama internet users by gender, age and geography.

The survey was designed, administered and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors LLC, a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about some of our past polling here: https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor

Survey Question:

Alabama residents were asked the following:

Thinking about your choices this November 3rd in Alabama: Based on recent news stories and advertisements in Alabama, who do you think most shares your values?

Tommy Tuberville (R)                     42%

Senator Doug Jones (D)                 26%

Don't Know/Undecided [ii]            32%

[i]  “Shared Values” is used in this survey as a proxy for candidate support. Values and Votes: The Indirect Effect of Personal Values on Voting Behavior https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1662-6370.2011.02009.x

[ii] A small number of respondents used the survey option to write in other choices which included Coach Nick Saban.

Tremont Director Signs on to Leadership Now Project Business for Racial Equity Pledge

Our hearts are heavy with the events of the past weeks. 

As citizens, we applaud and stand in solidarity with all Americans exercising their civil liberties and risking their lives and livelihoods for a more just and inclusive nation.  We know that our democracy will never be strong until we fully acknowledge and address America’s history of racism. 

As business people, we see a great need—and opportunity—for the business community to mobilize on issues of economic, social, and racial justice in new, innovative and evidence-based ways. 

We have seen heartfelt expressions of anguish and disgust from chief executives across Wall Street and corporate America. They acknowledge the senseless loss of life we have witnessed in recent weeks, not from the Covid-19 pandemic, but from this nation’s other deadly infectious disease: racism. 

We applaud these statements, and do not doubt their sincerity. But virtuous condemnations of racism and broad commitments to diversity and inclusion rarely translate into tangible, measurable, anti-racist action. 

Real change will require determined leadership from the business community. 

To that end, the co-authors of this letter, whose members represent the highest levels of management at dozens of U.S-based companies contributing billions of dollars to the nation’s GDP, have devised a list of concrete actions that companies can take now to begin to dismantle three of the biggest levers of racist power in this country: biased policing, electoral disenfranchisement, and economic exclusion.

Policing

The roots of American policing did not evolve around the promotion of public health and safety, but the protection of business and economic interests, and enforcement of the social order. 

The fact that Dylan Roof, a white supremacist and mass murderer of eight black churchgoers, can be taken peacefully into police custody, while Eric Garner and George Floyd lost their lives for allegedly selling loose cigarettes and using a counterfeit $20 bill at a convenience store, speaks to vestiges of norms and culture forged during slavery and Jim Crow. It is a system that too often devalues, criminalizes, threatens and, at its worst, ends innocent black lives. 

We simply cannot allow another generation of black children to grow up in a nation where law enforcement can kill with near impunity. 

We pledge to champion and drive meaningful progress across these actions:

• Financially support data-informed police reform. Our members are making donations to the Center for Policing Equity, The Policing Project, and the Police Use of Force Project, three organizations with superb data and evidence-based approaches to racially-just policing. 

• Compel mayors and city legislators to make police reform a priority in cities where you have a significant presence. This public safety advocacy toolkit from the Obama Foundation offers an excellent place to get started.

• Re-evaluate your company’s political donations. Scrutinize your company’s political donations to ensure the candidates and other political entities you support are not inadvertently (or intentionally) preventing progress on policing reform initiatives.

Civic Participation & Safe Ballot Access 

Voter suppression is another form of systemic racism. We must take a stand to ensure ballot-box access to communities of color and to protect their right to vote. 

We pledge to champion and drive meaningful progress across these actions: 

• Donate to organizations that protect voter rights, for example the NAACP and Black Voters Matter, that work specifically within the black community. 

• Publicly advocate for action at the state and local level, including access to early voting, vote-by-mail, and other efforts to ensure that your employees of all backgrounds can vote easily and safely, particularly amidst the ongoing Covid-19 public health crisis.    

Economic Inclusion

Racism is a blight not only on the prospects of individuals and communities, but on the American economy as a whole. And the massive job losses caused by the current pandemic have hit Black communities especially hard. The economy we rebuild post-Covid must be an inclusive one. 

We pledge to champion and drive meaningful progress across these actions: 

• Develop anti-racist workplace initiatives and track their progress. At a minimum, every organization should commit to inclusive hiring and retention practices; living wages and pay equity; board and supplier diversity; and anti-racist training for staff, especially frontline employees. 

• Establish talent sourcing partnerships with job training programs serving black communities. Work with established nonprofits successfully reskilling and upskilling workers in minority communities for in-demand jobs. 

• Direct more investment capital to black entrepreneurs, black-owned small businesses, and black fund managers. 

These are just a few strands of a much broader and complex set of institutional challenges. A truly just and inclusive society will require innovative and equitable solutions to so much more: education, healthcare, and housing, to name a few. 

But the initiatives above are an important start. 

Signed,

The membership of the Leadership Now Project

Leadership Now Project was founded by Harvard Business School alumni in 2017. Several black executive and Leadership Now members led this effort, including Craig Robinson, Lisa Lewin, and Tamer Mokhtar, and welcome partnership and engagement in this initiative.

Tremont Director Quoted On Biden VP Search

Joe Biden turns to friend and confidante Chris Dodd to help him choose running mate

Christopher Keating

8-10 minutes

Joe Biden is on the verge of making one of the biggest decisions of his long political career, and he has turned to former Connecticut Sen. Chris Dodd to help him make the crucial choice.

Dodd is serving as co-chairman of a special task force that is vetting candidates to be Biden’s running mate. While three other co-chairs are helping in the process, none of them has the deep personal friendship and political ties that Dodd has with Biden, officials said.

Dodd has said he served in the trenches for 30 years “on a daily basis” with Biden on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and on the Senate floor on a wide variety of issues and political battles. Dodd is now 76 years old, and Biden is 77.

They joined together in Connecticut last fall at one of the biggest fundraisers of the year for Biden’s presidential campaign at Gov. Ned Lamont’s Greenwich home, where Dodd stood side by side with Biden and pledged his support for the campaign.

“I’m going to dedicate the next 13 months of my life,” Dodd told the crowd at the time. “I don’t want to wake up on the day after the election in 2020 and think I didn’t do enough.”

While others have been raising money and plotting strategy, Dodd has spent long hours on the vice presidential vetting process, colleagues said. Dodd declined to comment for this article and is refusing all interviews in order to preserve the confidentiality of the selection, according to two close associates who have spoken to him.

But widespread media reports say national figures such as Sen. Kamala Harris of California and former National Security Advisor Susan Rice are in the running in a high-profile pick that could be announced before Aug. 1.

While the behind-the-scenes deliberations are secret, Biden tweeted on March 15 that “my running mate will be a woman.”

Former state Democratic Chairman John Droney, an attorney who has been involved in multiple campaigns, said Dodd is clearly a close confidante of Biden who is “the first among equals” on the team helping to choose the candidate in a delicate process that is often marked by political jockeying and outsized egos.

“Secrecy is very, very important,” Droney said. “The people who are potential candidates are often the ones who leak things to advance their own interests. There are some things that you can’t control, but the things you can control, you keep a pretty tight lid on it.”

He said Biden and Dodd are being careful to make sure that the candidate is best for the party and will not backfire.

“They want to avoid the Sarah Palin problem, which cost John McCain the presidency of the United States in my opinion,” Droney said of the former Alaska governor who was on the Republican presidential ticket in 2008. “That hurt him. You try to get a vice presidential candidate who doesn’t cost you anything and maybe gets you a point or two. McCain lost a point or two and then some, and Biden can’t afford to do the same thing. Period.”

Droney said he believes the best candidate is U.S. Sen. Tammy Duckworth of Illinois, who lost both legs while serving as a U.S. Army helicopter pilot in 2004 during the Iraq War.

“If you’re going to be practical about electing a president, you should pick a woman who will appeal to middle-class people who are not ideologues across the country,” he said. “She’s a war hero. She gave a lot for her country already. People respect that military service. That component is not part of the Democratic picture anymore. There are very few active Democrats who actually served in the military. ... Biden needs to get the middle class of America on his team.”

Unlike Droney, U.S. Sen. Richard Blumenthal has not publicly backing a candidate to be Biden’s running mate because he is personally friendly with three fellow U.S. senators in contention — Harris, Duckworth and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. Blumenthal has spoken to Dodd about the process and was not surprised about Dodd’s reluctance to talk publicly at this point.

“Joe Biden couldn’t rely on a person of better judgment and extraordinary insight than Chris Dodd, who is a battle-tested wise man of the political process who has seen it at a lot of different levels,” Blumenthal told The Courant. “Chris Dodd’s contribution here is to offer insight on what the downsides might be with any particular candidate, as well as the advantages. There are people who are seeking to advise them, which comes with the territory. They’ve been to this rodeo before a number of times at the highest levels, so the rest of us are almost amateurs by comparison.”

The other three co-chairs in the selection process are not as prominent on the national stage as Dodd, who ran briefly for president and served as the general chairman of the Democratic National Committee during the Clinton administration. They are Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti; U.S. Rep. Lisa Blunt Rochester, a Democrat from Biden’s home state of Delaware; and Cynthia Hogan, who has worked with Biden in the past and helped vet the nomination of U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

The biggest vice presidential vetting process in Connecticut history came in 2000, when U.S. Sen. Joe Lieberman joined the national ticket with then-Vice President Al Gore. Matthew Hennessy, a former Lieberman fundraiser, campaign adviser and staff member, said longtime Lieberman aide Sherry Brown told him that Lieberman had not been informed yet of the choice — even after it was announced by a reporter on television.

“That’s how secretive it is,” Hennessy said. “The nominee himself wasn’t told by Gore. The nominee’s not the last to know, but they’re not the first to know.”

In the current cycle, Dodd recalled his decades together in the Senate when he endorsed Biden.

Dodd recalled his decades together in the Senate with Biden when he endorsed him last fall.

“I know some have forgotten those days or were younger when they occurred, but I haven’t,” he said. “I was there. I was in the middle of it, and I can’t forget, along with others, how Joe Biden was a critical and highly valued leader in all those efforts. Joe Biden will not only win our American election of 2020 and defeat Donald Trump, he will lead an America that will make us all proud.”

The two colleagues have been helping each other for years. In December 2009, Biden attended a fundraiser for Dodd in Hartford when the senator was under attack from opponents and a month before he decided not to seek reelection. Biden praised Dodd, describing him as “the single most gifted legislator in Congress now that Teddy Kennedy’s gone.”

He called Dodd his best friend, noting that Dodd was facing mediocre poll numbers at the time amid constant attacks from Republicans as “Dump Dodd” became a common refrain in Connecticut. Dodd had played a key role as leader of the Dodd-Frank legislation on the Senate Banking Committee and in crafting the Affordable Care Act.

“Chris is getting the living hell beat out of him, the living bejesus beat out of him,” Biden said at the Hartford fundraiser. “Why? Because he’s being a leader.”

CONNECTICUT RESIDENTS IN NO RUSH AS STATE “REOPENS”

New Survey Shows Only 24% of Connecticut Residents Want Quick Reopening of State Businesses

5/20/20

CONTACT: Tremont Public Advisors, 860-986-7737

Hartford –A survey released today by the public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors shows most Connecticut residents support the continuation of Connecticut’s “stay at home policy”, or are unsure about what next steps state leaders should take to address the COVID-19 pandemic. Even as the number of newly unemployed rises to 500,000 as a result of the pandemic, 43% of Connecticut residents support the state’s policy which has kept Connecticut residents homebound and closed hundreds of businesses and schools. An additional 33% of residents are unsure about what next steps the state should take.

The on-line survey of 704 Connecticut residents conducted between 5/18-5/20/20 asked respondents what they thought state leaders should do next in light of the hundreds of thousands of Connecticut residents filing new unemployment claims and a death toll exceeding 3,408. A plurality of residents supported maintaining Governor Lamont’s “Stay Safe, Stay Home” policy for now. 24% of respondents supported lifting the policy and opening up all businesses immediately. 33% of residents were unsure what next steps state leaders should take. These results show a 19% drop in support for the “stay at home policy” from Tremont’s 4/27 polling release and a 16% drop in support from the Q-poll’s 5/6 release.[1][2]

“As the state moves forward with “reopening” most businesses Connecticut residents have considerable reservations about the approach. There is no question that support for the “stay at home policy has declined, but those agitating for immediate reopening of all businesses remain a small percentage of the population. Governor Lamont has received high marks from most residents for his handling the COVID-19 crisis in Connecticut, providing a calm and empathetic demeanor in clear contrast to President Trump.  However, his administration is entering a tricky period of time where state policy is moving ahead of where most residents are.” stated Matt Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “If in a few weeks residents feel that they can access testing when needed, PPE is easily obtained, deaths have significantly declined and local health districts are aggressively contact tracing, it is likely support for the state’s reopening plan will grow.”

The survey also collected a number of comments from respondents who didn’t select one of the three main survey responses. The following is a sample of the comments submitted verbatim:

“Begin partial openings of businesses. Monitor the virus.” – West Hartford, CT

“Monitor what has worked in other states. Track any rises in cases and have a quick lockdown policy if cases ramp up again”

“Open some business back im one of the people out of work since March 12 with no unemployment and i use all my saving up” -Hartford, CT

“Open up businesses, continue social distancing in the work place, continue working at home when possible, and see what the case numbers look like after taking those precautions. If the numbers show improvement, go to a phase 2 plan”

“One step at a time” – Bristol, CT

“protect the most vulnerable” - Southington, CT

“Provide PPE and get as many back to work as possible. Do not open schools yet.” – Wallingford, CT

Of those supporting the “stay at home policy”, women represented the majority of the supporters with the largest age group being the 25-34 age cohort.

Of those supporting an immediate opening of businesses and lifting of the “stay at home policy”, men constituted the largest group of supporters with the largest age group being the 55-64 cohort.

Survey Results

(Responses of Connecticut residents)

Q1: If you were told that in Connecticut, COVID-19 has left 500,000 workers unemployed and at least 3,408 dead. What do You think state leaders should do next??

Keep the stay at home policy for now.        43%

Stop the stay at home policy and open all stores        24%

Don't know     30%

Other   3%

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut. You can learn more about our polling here: (https://www.tremontpublicadvisors.net/news/2018/11/7/how-accurate-were-the-final-polls-in-the-race-for-ct-governor)

About Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors: Recognized as one of the top political consultants in the United States by Campaigns and Elections Magazine, Matt has served as an adviser to multiple campaigns for federal, state and local office, as well as a range of high-profile corporations and organizations.

Methodology

Between 4/18/20 and 4/20/20 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 704 Connecticut residents over age 18 using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3.6%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.

[1] https://poll.qu.edu/search-releases/search-results/release-detail?ReleaseID=3660&What=&strArea=1;1;&strTime=3

[2] The Q-poll asked slightly different questions and used a different survey methodology.

Support for Connecticut “Stay At Home Order” Through 5/20/20