New Poll Shows Leaders In Connecticut GOP Primary Races

Stewart, Linares, Hatfield, Greenberg Lead GOP Primary Field

8/6/18

Contact Tremont Public Advisors 860-986-7737

In the first publicly released head to head polling in the 2018 Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Attorney General and Comptroller, New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R), State Senator Art Linares (R), Assistant State’s Attorney Sue Hatfield (R) and Businessman Mark Greenberg (R) are leading their respective races in the sprint to the August 14th primary election day.

In a series of four on-line surveys conducted between 7/30-8/2/18 of 801-1,122 self-identified Connecticut Republicans, Tremont Public Advisors tested the likely outcome of the primary contests for: Lieutenant Governor between Erin Stewart, Joe Markley and Jayme Stevenson; Attorney General, between Sue Hatfield and John Shaban; the contest for Treasurer, between Art Linares and Thad Gray; and Comptroller between Mark Greenberg and Kurt Miller.

This is what we found:

·         In the Lieutenant Governor’s race, Stewart has a solid lead over endorsed candidate Senator Joe Markley, who leads Jayme Stevenson.

·         Sue Hatfield, the endorsed Republican, has a wide lead over challenger John Shaban in the primary for Attorney General.

·         In the contest for Treasurer, Art Linares is leading the endorsed candidate Thad Gray.

·         Businessman Mark Greenberg has a solid lead over Kurt Miller in the race for Comptroller

 “With only a week to go before the Republican Primary election, it looks like front runners in each of the Republican under ticket races have emerged. Interestingly, only one of the Republican candidates endorsed at the Convention, Sue Hatfield, is leading her race. For a variety of reasons specific to their candidacies, the challengers are making a strong showing.” Stated Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors.

“Erin Stewart, came into her race off a potential run for Governor with name recognition and a profile as a young urban Mayor that is attractive to many voters. Linares was quick to jump on an issue that excites a sizeable portion of the Republican base concerning a town official kneeling during the Pledge of Allegiance. Greenberg is benefitting from his profile as a businessman and higher name recognition than his opponent.” stated Hennessy.

 

Survey Results

(Respondents who self-identified as registered Republican voters in Connecticut)

Q. 1(A) If the Republican Primary Election for Connecticut Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote? (1,122 responses)

Erin E. Stewart         42%

Joe Markley                 31%

Jayme Stevenson        21%

Don’t Know/Other      6%

 

Q. 1(B) If the Republican Primary Election for Connecticut Treasurer were held today, for whom would you vote? (836 responses)

Art Linares                53%

Thad Gray                   46%

Don’t Know/Other      1%

 

Q. 1(C) If the Republican Primary Election for Connecticut Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote? (817 responses)

Sue Hatfield               59%

John Shaban                39%

Don’t Know/Other      2%

 

Q. 1(D) If the Republican Primary Election for Connecticut Comptroller were held today, for whom would you vote? (801 responses)

Mark Greenberg       55%

Kurt Miller                  45%

Don’t Know/Other      1%

*Rounding may produce results  +/- 100%

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs and Federal Lobbying firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut.

 

Methodology

Between 7/30/18 and 8/2/18 Tremont Public Advisors conducted four concurrent surveys of 801-1,122 self- identified, Connecticut registered Republican voters using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices for candidates were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

The pool was designed and administered by Tremont Public Advisors LLC and paid for by Cooper Communications, LLC.

FOX News Covers Tremont Poll

May 11th, 2018

Will Connecticut's unpopular Dem gov sink party's chances in November?

By Fred Lucas | Fox News

A solid blue state that went big for Hillary Clinton in 2016 might normally seem safe territory for Democrats in a midterm cycle some pundits predict will bring a “blue wave.” The party’s problem in Connecticut is that Democratic Gov. Dan Malloy is what one poll rates the least popular governor in the nation.

His deep unpopularity now threatens to hurt the party’s chances in a gubernatorial race that normally would be a shoo-in.

A Tremont Public Advisers poll released Monday found Connecticut residents preferred a Republican for governor in November by 49 percent to 43 percent. The Republican Governors Association is targeting the state with $1.7 million in TV ads.

It seems the gubernatorial race in Connecticut may come down to a simple question: Whether voters dislike Democratic Gov. Malloy or Republican President Trump more. Neither is on the ballot this fall, but both will play a big factor. And right now, Malloy may be winning the unpopularity contest.

A union-sponsored poll conducted by the Democratic-leaning Global Strategies Group in February showed two-term Malloy less popular than the president in the liberal state, with a 24 percent approval rating compared to Trump’s 36 percent.

So will Malloy be a drag on the party?

Chris Kukk, a political science professor at Western Connecticut State University, suggested unaffiliated voters will be the ones to watch. “Unaffiliated voters outnumber Republican and Democratic voters in Connecticut, and those are the voters that swing elections in a year when Trump is very unpopular and Malloy is very unpopular,” Kukk told Fox News.

Connecticut is one of 16 races this year for an open governor’s seat, according to Ballotpedia. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball consider the Connecticut governor’s race a tossup. Inside Elections is scoring the contest as leaning Democrat.

The packed field for both parties will likely be thinner after May conventions, where candidates must get 15 percent of delegates to qualify for the Aug. 14 primary ballot. The most recent poll found New Britain GOP Mayor Erin Stewart and Greenwich Democratic businessman Ned Lamont emerging as their party’s frontrunners.

Stewart’s chief rivals in the field of 12 GOP contenders are Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton and former U.S. Comptroller General David Walker. The Republican convention is Friday and Saturday.                                                                                 

Democrats hold their state convention May 18 and 19.  Of the nine Democrats, former three-term Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz and Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim are the only other candidates expected to gain enough delegates to advance to the primary. Lamont would win a majority in a two-way primary, but a three-way race would be more unpredictable, said Scott McLean, chairman of the political science department at Quinnipiac University.

The Tremont poll found Stewart beating both Democrats, Lamont beating Boughton and Bysiewicz losing to both Republicans.

Ned Lamont campaigned against Sen. Joe Lieberman in 2006. He beat Lieberman in the primary, but lost against him in the November general election, when Lieberman ran as an independent.  (www.nedlamont.com)

Boughton, first elected Danbury mayor in 2001, gained prominence for tackling the issue of illegal immigration in his city. In 2010, Boughton lost narrowly in a race for lieutenant governor on a Republican ticket with Tom Foley to the Democratic ticket led by Malloy.

“Boughton is the best GOP candidate for winning statewide,” McLean told Fox News. “He is a center-right candidate in a state where Republicans want to see someone efficiently manage state government and keep taxes low.”

Stewart was elected to lead New Britain in 2013 at age 26 and in 2016 was ranked number one on the Newsmax list of “30 most influential Republicans under 30.”

“A young mayor out of New Britain would give a new face to the Republican Party and take away the negatives of Trump,” Kukk said.

Walker ran the Government Accountability Office, the federal government’s watchdog, from 1998 through 2008. He then led the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, a nonprofit fiscal watchdog group.

Lamont is best known as the progressive challenger that beat moderate Sen. Joe Lieberman in a 2006 Democratic primary before losing the Senate race in November when Lieberman ran as an independent. Lamont lost to Malloy in the 2010 gubernatorial primary.

Bysiewicz, who wrote a biography of the state’s first woman governor, Ella Grasso, is running to be the state’s third female chief executive. After serving as secretary of the state, she lost a Senate primary to then-U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy in 2012.

Ganim has a checkered past. He resigned as mayor in 2003 after being convicted on public corruption charges, was sentenced to seven years in federal prison and after his release mounted a huge comeback to get re-elected mayor of Bridgeport in 2015.

While Malloy isn't term limited, he likely would have divided the Democratic Party if he sought a third term, McLean said. 

The strong dislike state voters have for him is based in part on his broken promises not to hike taxes – in turn, fueling the exodus of corporations like GE and Aetna. Beyond policy, McLean said, Malloy comes across as pushy and arrogant with problems connecting to voters and bad relations with legislators. 

But Christina Polizzi, spokeswoman for the Connecticut Democratic Party, argued that the party has momentum on their side after flipping 22 Connecticut municipal governments in 2017 and winning a special election in February for a state House district seat that had been Republican for 40 years.

"The bottom line is, voters in Connecticut are looking for someone who will stand up to the Trump agenda and fight for Connecticut families," Polizzi told Fox News. "Republican candidates for governor have proven time and time again that they are unwilling to do that." 

None of the Republican candidates have ties to the Trump administration, while neither of the top two Democratic candidates served in public office while Malloy was governor, McLean noted.

“Malloy is on the way out and I doubt we’ll be hearing much about him for the next five months,” McLean said. “But we will be hearing a lot about Trump. So, I would predict an anti-Trump sentiment is more likely.”

Malloy was the first Democrat elected governor since 1986. The GOP made big gains in the state legislature during the Obama administration, going from 37 seats in 2008 in the House of Representatives to now holding 72 seats, compared with the Democrats' 79-seat majority. The state Senate is tied.

One reason so many candidates are in the race is Connecticut’s “Citizen’s Election Program” that provides taxpayer money for candidates—instituted after Republican Gov. John G. Rowland was convicted on corruption charges. Primary candidates are eligible for $1.25 million each if they can raise $250,000 in small donations. General election nominees get $6 million from the state.

Fred Lucas is the White House correspondent for the Daily Signal. Follow him on Twitter @FredLucasWH.

Tremont Public Advisors to Release Poll On GOP Under Ticket On 8/6/18

Hartford - Tremont Public Advisors, a lobbying and public affairs firm with offices in Hartford and Washington, D.C., will release the first public poll on the 8/14 Connecticut Republican primary elections for Lieutenant Governor, Attorney General, Treasurer and Comptroller on Monday, August 6th 2018 at 10AM.

Between 7/30/18 and 8/2/18 Tremont Public Advisors conducted four concurrent surveys of 801-1,122 self- identified, Connecticut registered Republican voters using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices for candidates were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

Connecticut Media Covers Tremont Republican Primary Poll

 

Hartford Business Journal Covers Tremont Poll

http://www.hartfordbusiness.com/article/20180723/NEWS01/180729978/survey-ct-voters-prioritize-jobs-health-care-taxes

NBC Connecticut coverage of Republican Primary Poll

https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/Online-Poll-Shows-Boughton-leading-GOP-Field-488941441.html

Channel 8 Covers Tremont Poll

https://www.wtnh.com/news/politics/first-public-poll-for-gop-gubernatorial-candidates-shows-boughton-leads-pack/1317111320

Public Radio Coverage of the Tremont Poll

http://www.wshu.org/post/boughton-leads-gop-pack-first-poll

Courant Covers Tremont Republican Primary Poll

 

New Poll: GOP's Mark Boughton In The Lead Ahead Of Republican Primary

Hartford Courant

July, 23 2018

With only three weeks remaining until the Republican primary, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton is leading the pack, according to a new poll.

Boughton, who won the Republican Party’s convention endorsement in May, was favored by 34.3 percent of those polled in an online survey.

Longtime business executive Bob Stefanowski of Madison placed second at 20 percent, while former Greenwich hedge fund manager David Stemerman had 14.6 percent. Stemerman was essentially tied with former Trumbull first selectman Tim Herbst at 14.5 percent, according to the survey.

 

 

Westport technology entrepreneur Steve Obsitnik placed last among the five primary candidates at 11.6 percent. Obsitnik was delayed seven times in obtaining public financing of $1.35 million for the primary, and his campaign is currently under investigation by the State Elections Enforcement Commission for potential coordination with a third-party political committee that was formed in April to operate on his behalf.

The online poll was conducted by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC, a federal lobbying firm with offices in Hartford and Washington, D.C. Tremont is operated by longtime Hartford Democratic political adviser Matthew J. Hennessy, but Hennessy says that he is not working for any candidate in the current race.

“There is good news and bad news for Mark Boughton in the survey results,’’ Hennessy said. “The good news is that Boughton has held on to his front-runner status coming out of the May Republican convention, even in the face of being considerably outspent by his rivals for the nomination. The bad news for Boughton is that two of his rivals who remain within striking distance of his lead have the capability to pour millions of dollars into their campaigns over the next couple of weeks, potentially eliminating his lead.’’

Hennessy was referring to Stemerman, who has already contributed $12.8 million to the race, and Stefanowski, a wealthy business executive who has raised more than $2.2 million from fundraising and making personal loans to his campaign.

The survey of 1,006 Connecticut residents were self-identified as Republicans, and they answered a single question of whom they would favor in the primary. The survey, which has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, was taken between July 18 and July 20.

The poll did not ask any questions about the two contenders in the Democratic primary on August 14: convention-endorsed candidate Ned Lamont of Greenwich and Bridgeport Mayor Joseph Ganim.

BOUGHTON LEADS REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FIELD IN RACE FOR CT GOVERNOR

7/23/18

CONTACT: Tremont Public Advisors, 860-986-7737

Hartford – With less than four weeks to go until Connecticut Republicans vote to select their nominee for Governor, a new Tremont Public Advisors poll shows Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton leading the Republican primary field.

An on-line survey of 1,006 Connecticut Republicans showed Boughton receiving the support of 34.3% of Republicans giving him a double -digit lead over Bob Stefanowski (20%), David Stemerman (14.6%), Tim Herbst (14.5%) and Steve Obsitnik (11.6).

“There is good news and bad news for Mark Boughton in the survey results released today” stated Matt Hennessy the Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “The good news is that Boughton has held on to his front-runner status coming out of the May Republican Convention even in the face of being considerably outspent by his rivals for the nomination. The bad news for Boughton is that two of his rivals who remain within striking distance of his lead have the capability to pour millions of dollars into their campaigns over the next couple of weeks potentially eliminating his lead.” Hennessy stated.

“What does seem certain, is that the winner of the Republican primary for Governor is going to head to November with a clear majority of his party not having voted for him.” Hennessy stated.

Survey Results

(Responses of those registered to vote as a Republican in Connecticut)

Q1: If the Republican primary for Governor of Connecticut was being held today, for whom would you vote?

Mark Boughton                     34.3%

Bob Stefanowski                    20%

David Stemerman                   14.6%

Tim Herbst                              14.5%

Steve Obsitnik                        11.6%

Don’t Know/Other                    5%

 

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs and Federal Lobbying firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut.

 

About Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors: Recognized as one of the top political consultants in the United States by Campaigns and Elections Magazine, Matt has served as an adviser to multiple campaigns for federal, state and local office, as well as a range of high profile corporations and organizations.

 

 

Methodology

Between 7/18/18 and 7/20/18 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a single question survey of 1,006 self- identified, Connecticut registered Republican voters using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices for candidates were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

 

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.

Tremont Public Advisors To Release Poll in Republican Primary for Governor of Connecticut on 7/23

Hartford - Tremont Public Advisors, LLC, a leading public affairs and federal lobbying firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut will be releasing its latest poll in the Republican primary for Governor of Connecticut on Monday 7/23/18 at 10 AM.

The survey of 1,006 self identified Connecticut Republican voters was conducted on-line between 7/18-7/20.

Those interested in learning more about the relative accuracy of "opt-in" polls conducted via the internet, are encouraged to review the American Association for Public Opinion Research critique of public polling in the 2016 election which can be found here:

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000015b-d46e-da30-a3db-fefe45b50002

The methodology of the Tremont Republican Primary survey is as follows:

Methodology

Between 7/18/18 and 7/20/18 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a single question survey of 1,006 self- identified, Connecticut registered Republican voters using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices for candidates were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

 

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.

Wall Street Journal Quotes Tremont Director on New Poll In CT Governor's Race

Connecticut Mayor, Businessman in Top Spots in Governor’s Race, Poll Shows

By Joseph De Avila

Wall Street Journal

May 7, 2018 2:41 p.m. ET

Democratic businessman Ned Lamont and Republican New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart have emerged as the top Connecticut gubernatorial candidates, according to a new poll released Monday, as their respective parties head to nominating conventions later this month.

 Ms. Stewart and Mr. Lamont are essentially in a dead heat in a head-to-head matchup, according to the poll conducted by Tremont Public Advisors, a Connecticut lobbying firm that isn’t involved in the race.

 “With six months to go before the November election, it appears Lamont and Stewart are starting to get the attention of the voters,” said Matthew Hennessy, managing director of Tremont.

 Gov. Dannel Malloy, a Democrat with some of the worst poll numbers in the U.S., declined to run for a third term. Mr. Malloy hit a 23% approval rating, according to a Morning Consult poll from February.

 Political observers forecast a close race in a blue state where unaffiliated voters make up the largest voting bloc. The Cook Political Report rates this race as a toss up.

 Republicans are banking that Mr. Malloy’s poor poll numbers will weigh down the eventual Democratic candidate. Democrats are hoping their base’s dissatisfaction with Republican President Donald Trump will fire them up to turn out in large numbers in November.

 Connecticut’s next governor will face long-term fiscal problems as fixed costs such as pensions continue to rise faster than revenue growth. That creates challenges for the state to pay for other programs, including those in the education and transportation sectors.

 Connecticut voters had a slight preference for a Republican candidate, according to the poll. A GOP contender beat a Democratic candidate 49.9% to 43.4%, though that is within the survey’s 4.5% margin of error.

 Mr. Lamont, a 64-year-old cable-television entrepreneur who opposed the Iraq war, became a national figure when he beat Joe Lieberman, a staunch supporter of the war, in the divisive 2006 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. He lost in the general election to Mr. Lieberman, who ran as an independent.

 Ms. Stewart, who is 31 years old, is in the middle of her third term as mayor. She is running as a moderate Republican who boasts of her crossover appeal in New Britain, city of about 73,000 residents where Democrats outnumber Republicans by about five to one.

 The Republican nominating convention begins Friday, and the Democrats start their convention later this month. Candidates who secure the support of 15% of the delegates earn a spot on August’s primary ballot.

Ms. Stewart is shaping up to be a formidable general-election candidate, attracting more support from female voters compared with her male Republican rivals, Mr. Hennessy said. Her main challenge will be surviving a primary where other GOP members have been running to her right, he said.

 In recent weeks, Mr. Lamont has earned several endorsements—including New Haven Mayor Toni Harp and Jonathan Harris, former executive director or the Connecticut Democratic Party—and appears to be separating himself from the rest of the Democratic pack, Mr. Hennessy said. His business background could appeal to some Republican voters, he noted.

 Mr. Lamont would beat Republican Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton by 10 points, the poll found. And Ms. Stewart would top Democrat Susan Bysiewicz, former secretary of the state for Connecticut, by 10 points. Mr. Boughton beats Ms. Bysiewicz in a theoretical matchup by 47.2% to 42.3%. able-television entrepreneur Ned Lamont are in a dead heat

https://www.wsj.com/articles/connecticut-mayor-businessman-in-top-spots-in-governors-race-poll-shows-1525718459?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=1#comments_sector