How Accurate Were the Final Polls in the Race for CT Governor?

With the polls closed, how did the final public polls do?

With the race for Governor of Connecticut complete and Ned Lamont confirmed as the winner (685,453) with 49.1% of the vote over Bob Stefanowski (648,086) 46.4%[1] it is a good time to take a look back at the public polling of the race and see where they got it right. Between 10/28 -11/1/18, Quinnipiac University, Hearst/Sacred Heart University, Emerson College and Gravis Marketing all completed polling on citizen preferences in the Connecticut Governor’s race which they then shared with the public.

Tremont Public Advisors concluded two related surveys on 10/31 and 11/3/18 asking Connecticut residents which candidate for governor most “shared their values”.

The polls were conducted in a variety of manners with sample sizes ranging from 500-805 verified respondents with margins of error from 3.7-4.3%. How did they do?

Absolute error on the projected vote margin (or “absolute error”), is computed as the absolute value of the margin in the poll minus the same margin in the certified vote. Quinnipiac and Hearst/SHU polls had the smallest absolute error in the group with 1.3%. Their results most closely tracked the final difference between Lamont and Stefanowski (2.7%) in the final vote tally.

Quinnipiac, Emerson and Gravis correctly identified Ned Lamont as the likely winner of the Governor’s race.

Lamont’s final share of the vote fell within the range (including MOE) identified by Emerson and Gravis. Quinnipiac correctly identified both Lamont and Stefanowki’s share of the final vote within the MOE of its survey.

The final 11/3/18 Tremont survey asking Connecticut residents which candidate most “shared their values” had results that correlated closely with each candidates’ final share of the vote within the MOE with an absolute error of 1.3% (using “shared values” as a proxy for electoral support).

Though Quinnipiac concluded its polling eight days before Election Day, its final survey best reflected the election outcome. The other surveys, in all but one case, correctly identified the winner, yet understated the share of the vote that eventually went to Stefanowski possibly missing the late leakage of Republican voters from independent candidate Oz Griebel to Stefanowski.


[1] Results from CT Secretary of State’s website and the New Haven Independent’s tally of the vote in New Haven.

NBC News Quotes Tremont Director on Close Race for CT Governor

Battle Over Taxes and Deficits: Connecticut Governor Race Remains Tight

What will drive voters, dismay over Trump or dislike of outgoing governor?

By Noreen O'Donnell

NBC NEWS

Published Nov 3, 2018 at 8:58 AM | Updated at 8:58 AM CDT on Nov 3, 2018

Neil Covert wants to replace Connecticut’s outgoing Democratic governor, Dannel Malloy, with a Republican who will not propose higher taxes or tolls on the state’s highways as a way to tackle the state’s financial problems.

On Tuesday, the 49-year-old Kent resident will vote for Bob Stefanowski, who is in a tight race against Democrat Ned Lamont.

Stefanowski says he will phase out the state income tax over eight years and other taxes immediately, proposals Lamont argues would drive up the need to raise property taxes.

Covert, who works for Westport Glass Co., knows that the Democrats have been trying to link Stefanowski to President Donald Trump, but says the strategy makes little sense, nor does it faze him. He likes Trump.

“I’m just looking for a boost in the economy,” Covert said this week during a lunch break in Greenwich. “This year I’ve seen more work trucks on the road.”

 

But for Patrice Yachkoff, a 39-year-old stylist for a store in Greenwich, Trump is key to her decision this year. She will vote for Lamont, both because of his ideas — she is open to tolls on out-of-state trucks traveling through Connecticut as Lamont favors — and her opposition to Trump.

“I would never vote for anybody that agrees with Trump,” said Yachkoff, who lives in Norwalk.

 

The political strategies at play add up to a tug of war between Republicans focused on dislike for Malloy and Democrats hoping to capitalize on low regard for President Donald Trump.

Stefanowski has repeatedly tried to link Lamont with his fellow Democrat, among the most unpopular governors in the country, if not the most unpopular.

“Connecticut used to lead the nation in jobs and growth,” Stefanowski wrote in one early tweet. “Now because of the failed leadership of politicians like Dan Malloy and Ned Lamont, we have fallen to 49th in the nation. It’s time to #RebuildConnecticut.”

Lamont for his part wants to tie Stefanowski to a president whose approval rating in the state is only at 34 percent, according to a September poll, and whose policies Lamont says would hurt Connecticut. When Trump endorsed Stefanowski after he won the GOP primary, Lamont was quick with a Twitter insult: “Bob Trumpanowski.”

More seriously, he criticized the effects of the GOP-led tax reform on Connecticut residents and predicted damage from Stefanowski's economic proposals.

“Thanks to Trump, 181,000 Connecticut residents are being taxed on an extra $10 billion,” he wrote. “The cap on deductions hits CT hard. Our middle class is paying billions more for giveaways to the wealthiest and big corporations. Stefanowski's plan hits CT's middle class one more time.”

Governor races are typically about local not national issues, but Trump’s is not a typical presidency and the divisiveness surrounding his administration is affecting politics at all levels. Connecticut’s troubled economy is looming large, but so is the president. In one campaign video, for example, Lamont is seen talking to a crowd about women's rights, abortion rights -- and Trump.

"None of these are state issues," said Scott McLean, a political science professor at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Connecticut. "They don't have to do with the state issues that voters tell us they care about, which is the economy and taxes, schools. It's all about linking the Republicans in Connecticut with what's going on in Washington."

But if Republicans are successful, Malloy’s struggles with the state's economy will reflect on Lamont no matter that Lamont and Malloy are not political allies, that Lamont challenged Malloy for the 2010 Democratic nomination for governor and that Lamont, like Stefanowski in fact, has never served in state government.

"Lamont has not been part of the Malloy administration, the Malloy team, so he can say that there is some distance between him and the governor," said Ronald Schurin, an associate professor of political science at the University of Connecticut. "The Republicans will say, 'Well, it's a difference without a real distinction. They're both Democrats."

Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in the state 5 to 3 and the midterm elections could draw large numbers of voters dismayed with Trump's behavior. Against the Democrats' hopes of Connecticut remaining blue as a "blue wave" sweeps the country is the state's history of electing Republicans, John Rowland for three terms as governor (though he was later twice convicted on federal charges and went to prison) and then his lieutenant, Jodi Rell in 2006.

“There is an atmosphere that it’s possible and a history of it happening so in that sense it’s good for the Republicans but the challenges are difficult,” said Matthew Hennessy of Tremont Public Advisors, a Connecticut lobbying and public affairs firm.

The Cook Political Report classifies the governor's race as a toss-up, and says the seat is one of two that are at risk among the nine that Democrats are defending.

“Connecticut is a solidly blue state which inherently favors Democrat businessman Ned Lamont, but voter dissatisfaction with the direction of the state may help GOP businessman Bob Stefanowski exceed expectations,” it wrote.

A Sacred Heart University/Hearst Connecticut Media poll released Thursday showed Stefanowski ahead, 40 percent to 38 percent for Lamont. A recent one from the Quinnipiac Poll found that Lamont was ahead 47 percent to 43 percent. Both leads were within the margin of error. An independent candidate, Oz Griebel, was polling in the single digits.

A top issue for most voters is Connecticut’s financial woes, the $4.6 billion deficit projected for the upcoming two-year budget. It is one of the few states that hasn’t recovered all of the jobs lost during the 2008 recession, a report issued in July found. A loss of manufacturing was the largest cause for the drop in the state’s economy.

For 77-year-old Carolyn McGrath, the state’s fiscal problems are a top concern. Malloy has driven the state into a financial hole, sending home prices down, she said. Stefanowski, unlike Malloy, understands financial issues, she said.

“We’ve got a good Republican here,” she said. “We’ve got to save the state. He’s our last hope.”

Stefanowski, 56, is a former business executive who worked for General Electric, 3iGroup plc, UBS and Dollar Financial Group and who now lives in Madison. He has focused on reducing taxes — phasing out the state income tax, corporate income tax and business entity taxes and eliminating the gift and estate taxes — and cutting state spending.

But he also has an A from the National Rifle Association, in a state that was devastated by the Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, and has refused to clarify his position. Democrats have been trying to use the high rating against him, arguing that he will try to roll back the legislation passed after the shooting that Lamont says he will protect.

Lamont, 64, who lives in Greenwich, is an entrepreneur who built a telecommunications business. He beat former U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman in 2006 in the Democratic primary, before losing in the general election to Lieberman, who ran as an independent. He is emphasizing job training, transportation improvements and tolls on tractor-trailers traveling on Connecticut's highways.

Two students at Norwalk Community College — Victoria Rosenblum, 20, of Greenwich, Kevin Ostos, 22, of Stamford — were as focused on national issues as on local issues: The Paris Agreement on climate change, student loans, immigrants. They will be voting for Lamont.

They both work at a kennel, she as a dog walker, he was an attendant.

Ostos said Trump represented the parts of the country resistant to change — more accepting of immigrants and of rights for the transgender community, for example.

“Everything is changing more rapidly than the older generation can comprehend,” Ostos said. “Trump represents the generation that is nationalistic.”

Rosenblum said she appreciated the tax cut approved by Congressional Republicans and Trump, but beyond that: “He doesn’t have the country’s best interest at heart.”

 

  

 

 

 

Find this article at:
https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/politics/Which-Will-Prevail-Dismay-Over-President-Trump-or-Dislike-of-Governor-Mallloy-499449121.html

 

Tremont Director On Next UN Ambassador

Reports Say Trump’s Considering Connecticut’s Joe Lieberman For UN Ambassador. Here’s Why.

Hartford Courant

10/11/18

Christopher Keating

Media reports have placed former U.S. Sen. Joseph Lieberman on President Donald Trump’s short list to be the next ambassador to the United Nations.

Lieberman, a Democrat who represented Connecticut in the Senate from 1989-2013 and was Al Gore’s running mate in 2000, would replace former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who is leaving the post at the end of the year. Last year he was offered the job of FBI director by Trump, but turned it down due to a conflict of interest.

What has Lieberman been doing since leaving the Senate in 2013?

After serving 24 years in the Senate, Lieberman, 76, is working part time at the New York City law firm of Marc Kasowitz, a well-known attorney who has been President Donald Trump’s personal lawyer. Lieberman has also served as co-chairman of No Labels, the group that promotes political bipartisanship to solve problems. He helped run an all-day convention in New Hampshire during the 2016 election cycle that attracted eight presidential candidates.

Who else is under consideration for the U.N. post?

Media reports say that another possibility is Dina Powell, the former national security adviser who is on good terms with Trump. Powell left the White House to return to a senior level position with Goldman Sachs investment bank, but reports said she is considering returning to public life. She is said to be favored by Ivanka Trump and Jared Kushner, two of Trump’s closest advisers.

Other possibilities include U.S. Ambassador to Germany Richard Grenell and U.S. Ambassador to Canada Kelly Craft.

Why would Lieberman be picked?

“A lot of folks say Joe would be a good U.N. ambassador,’’ said Matthew J. Hennessy, a former fundraiser and campaign adviser to Lieberman who worked on the senator’s staff in Washington. “Trump has had affection for Joe since meeting with him at Trump Tower before he got sworn in. The reason to pick Joe is he possibly could have a good path though the Senate. That’s the very practical thing about picking him. Also, he has a lot of familiarity with international issues. Joe is also very committed to the sovereignty and protection of Israel.’’

Why would Lieberman not be picked?

“He’s actually been a very outspoken senator of the international groups that Trump has been dismissive of,’’ Hennessy said. “NATO. The Paris Accord. Environmental agreements. Human rights agreements. That’s the inherent problem. That’s on the downside. He would not be rattling cages over things that would disrupt long-held American beliefs.’’

What other high-profile jobs has Lieberman explored?

During the tenure of then-President George W. Bush, Lieberman told The Courant that he was asked to consider the same job — ambassador to the United Nations. Later, he was asked to consider becoming Homeland Security chief after then-nominee Bernie Kerik of New York ran into controversy in December 2004 and withdrew.

Both times, Lieberman chose to remain in the U.S. Senate.

How close was Lieberman to becoming FBI director under President Trump?

Very close. He was interviewed at the White House in May 2017 to replace James Comey, who was fired.

When asked earlier this year if he had any regrets about not becoming the FBI director, Lieberman told CNN: “None at all. Out of a sense of duty and honor that [Trump] had asked me, and after extended conversation with my wife, I was going to do it. But there was a conflict of interest when the lawyer who founded the firm I’m with was asked by the president to defend him in the Mueller investigation.”

Does the U.N. ambassador job require Senate approval?

Yes. Lieberman would likely still have bipartisan support in the Senate, even though some liberal Democrats were skeptical that he should retain his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee. When Haley was under consideration in 2017, she was approved by the Senate, 96 to 4.

What do key swing voters, like Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, think?

In an interview with The Courant in her Washington office in 2012, Collins said she worked very closely with Lieberman on Homeland Security legislation and became his friend. She traveled to Connecticut to campaign for him in the general election during the contentious 2006 Senate race.

“We worked hand in glove to draft the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004,’’ Collins told The Courant. “That experience of working, literally day and night, with Joe cemented our friendship because both of us were committed to putting into law the recommendations of the 9-11 Commission. … I saw firsthand Joe’s absolute commitment to doing what he thought was right and his never giving up until we reached what appeared at times to be an impossible goal.’’

At the time, Collins added, “I consider him to be my closest friend in the Senate. … He’s a senator’s senator. He’s the way the Senate should be.’’

Tremont Director Quoted in Governing Magazine on Race for CT Governor

Republicans Could Take Control of These 2 Coastal Blue States

GOVERNING MAGAZINE

BY: Alan Greenblatt | October 3, 2018

In the blue states of Connecticut and Oregon, Republicans have fighting chances at winning governors' offices currently held by Democrats. 

In Connecticut, outgoing Democrat Dannel Malloy is one of the least popular governors in the country, with an approval rating of around 20 percent. He's raised taxes substantially, yet the state faces a budget shortfall in the neighborhood of $2 billion. Connecticut remains wealthy, but it's been shedding jobs and population as job creation has lagged well behind the nation as a whole.

"Structurally, it is indeed possible for the Republicans to take the governorship," says Matt Hennessy, a Democratic consultant in Connecticut. "Malloy is actually less popular than Trump, which is really saying something."

The race to replace Malloy is between two businessmen. Republican Bob Stefanowski has served as an executive with companies including General Electric and UBS, while Democrat Ned Lamont is a telecommunications company owner and investor. 

If you doubt a blue state like Connecticut would elect a Republican in a Democratic year, look around the neighborhood. Republican Govs. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts, Phil Scott of Vermont and Chris Sununu of New Hampshire are all favored to win second terms. Rhode Island Democratic Gov. Gina Raimondo holds a single-digit polling lead over Republican Mayor Allan Fung in their rematch. And in Maine, the race to succeed GOP Gov. Paul LePage is a tossup. 

In Connecticut, Republicans have steadily been gaining ground on Malloy's watch. A decade ago, Democrats held a 114-37 majority in the state House and a 24-12 advantage in the state Senate. In 2016, however, Republicans tied the state Senate and came within four narrow losses of a House majority. 

"I honestly believe that in this state, it's really about how government policy is impacting local people here in Connecticut," says J.R. Romano, who chairs the state GOP. "It's getting harder and harder to be an average hard-working family in this state, and that's a direct result of Dan Malloy's policies. The cost of living is rising. Your taxes are rising."

For that reason, Romano says Democratic plans to make the governor's race all about President Trump aren't going to work.

Democrats aren't so sure. "What we're hearing at the doors is a lot about Trump," says Lori Pellitier, president of the Connecticut AFL-CIO. 

Stefanowski, who had not previously been active in politics, took 29 percent of the August primary vote in the five-way Republican field. Like many GOP gubernatorial candidates this year, he prevailed by pledging allegiance to the president.

"Stefanowski was clear to say he'd give Trump an A and would welcome him to Connecticut," Pelletier says. "He even got support from an illustrious tweet of the commander-in-chief." (Trump endorsed Stefanowksi on Twitter after the primary.)

Previous Republican governors of Connecticut have appealed to voters by taking liberal-to-moderate stances on issues such as abortion or environmental protections, says Hennessy. Stefanowski hasn't taken that approach. He argues the Affordable Care Act hasn't helped Connecticut; he opposes an increase in the minimum wage; and he has proposed phasing out the state income tax, which even some Republicans have described as a fantasy.

The two candidates have run ads attacking each other over the issue of payday loans, which can trap poor people in a cycle of debt. Stefanowski served as CEO of a payday lender, while Lamont's wife held investments in a payday lender.

"He’s telling lies about my wife," Lamont complained on Tuesday

Lamont, who spent a total of $20 million on his previous campaigns for governor and U.S. Senate, has devoted $8 million of his own money to this year's race so far, including an infusion of $5 million this week.

The race may come down to which battlefield of issues the campaign is fought on, Hennessy says. If Stefanowski is able to keep the focus on taxes, that could be problematic for Lamont. 

"Ned Lamont is going to raise your taxes, and that's what people do not want," says Romano. 

But Hennessy argues that if Lamont is able to get voters focused on other issues, the state's Democratic tilt -- and the fact that the party's candidates are favored in federal races throughout the state -- could help him overcome Malloy's unpopularity. 

"Ned has embraced a lot of key Democratic proposals on a basic minimum wage, on health care," Hennessy says. "He's checked all the boxes, in that sense."

 

GOP Challenges in Oregon Governor's Race

The contours of the race in Oregon are different. There, GOP state Rep. Knute Buehler is running against Democratic incumbent Gov. Kate Brown by presenting himself as a moderate. Most prognosticators give Brown the edge, but Real Clear Politics changed its rating of the race last week to tossup.

Buehler "leads with a moderate independent voice," says Monica Wroblewski, Buehler's campaign communications director. "He didn't support President Trump."

As in Connecticut, Buehler is complaining that taxes are too high. Meanwhile, Brown's approval ratings have been in the low 40s, with nearly as many Oregonians disapproving of her job performance. Brown's cap-and-trade proposal has gone nowhere, and the Department of Human Services has been hit with numerous complaints over the past couple of years for its handling of the foster care system.

"If you go half an hour outside of Portland, people feel they're ignored by this administration because it all caters to this liberal pocket," says Wroblewski.

A poll released last week by an Ohio-based firm showed Brown ahead by just a single percentage point. But a poll conducted by a Portland-based firm last month showed Brown with a 10-point lead. 

That's typical of recent Oregon elections: A poll will often come out showing that Republicans are closer than expected. But no Republican has been elected governor of Oregon since 1982. Out-of-state pollsters tend to miss some of the nuances of Oregon politics, says Jim Moore, a political scientist at Pacific University in Forest Grove, Ore. More voters are registered "unaffiliated" than Republican, but their turnout rate runs 20 to 30 percent behind those of Republicans and Democrats. Pollsters sometimes give the unaffiliated too much weight, Moore says.

Buehler, meanwhile, has a "whack-a-mole" problem, Moore suggests. He's presenting himself as a moderate on issues like abortion and immigration to appeal to unaffiliated voters, while at the same time trying to keep more conservative Republican voters on board. Democrats accuse him of talking out of both sides of his mouth, espousing different positions to different audiences, or least shading things differently now than he did during the primary campaign.

"It's created navigational problems for Buehler," say Christian Gaston, communications director for the Brown campaign. "He's trying to position himself in the middle of the electorate, but he's also trying to communicate to his base, which is very supportive of Trump."

Takeaways from the Connecticut GOP Primary for Governor

8/15/18

Hartford – The conclusion of the most expensive GOP primary for Governor in Connecticut’s history with a win by Bob Stefanowski, leaves no doubt the Connecticut Republican party, like the national GOP, is now the party of Donald Trump. Here are a few of our initial takeaways:

·         The approximately 143,000 Republican voters participating in the GOP Primary was a significant increase over the highly contested 2010 GOP primary for Governor which had 116,883 voters participate.

·         Trump voters played an important role in Stefanowski’s victory as he embraced the President while at the same time spending more than others, such as Tim Herbst, to specifically activate Trump voters.

·          Stemerman, Herbst and Obsitnik performed as expected based on our polling of the race, and the winner performed as expected (gaining about 30% of the primary vote to win).

·         Our final public survey showed Stefanowski picking up ground on Boughton, but Stefanowski outperformed his top range in our polling by a little less than 5% and Boughton underperformed his bottom range in our poll by about 6%.

·         As our polling consistently indicated, 70% of the GOP primary voters did not vote for the winning candidate.

·         The Citizens Election Program was a hinderance to candidates who decided to participate, failing to provide timely and sufficient funds to get the message out in the face of well financed competitors.

 

“This was an interesting and competitive race. By choosing Stefanowski the GOP will have a difficult time separating its’ image from that of Donald Trump. For Democrats, the challenge of separating themselves from Governor Malloy’s unpopularity will be lessened by the selection of his former competitor as their nominee.” Stated Matt Hennessy of Tremont Public Advisors.

Public Radio Covers Final Tremont GOP Poll

Poll Shows Boughton Still Leading The GOP Pack

By Ann Lopez

WSHU

A poll of Connecticut Republican voters finds the party endorsed candidate for governor, Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, is still ahead in the five-way gubernatorial primary.

The poll was released just ahead of Tuesay's primary election by Tremont Advisors, a federal lobbying firm with offices in Washington D.C. and Hartford. 

It finds Boughton with 31.5 percent support. That’s a drop from where he was in the Tremont poll a month ago, but still 10 points ahead of Bob Stefanowski, a former business executive from Madison. Stefanowski has 21.5 percent support. Former Greenwich hedge fund manager David Stemerman has 17 percent support, and former Trumbull First Selectman Tim Herbst has 15.6 percent support. Steve Obsitnik, an entrepreneur from Westport, has 11.4 percent support.

“What is going on is as this race is coming to its conclusion and the spending has been pretty considerable by the parties. Boughton's lead has come a little bit and Stefanowski, Herbst and Stemerman are trying to chip away at his lead," said Matt Hennessy, managing director of Tremont Public Advisors. "And they are getting a little bit of progress with that, but you know we are four days out at this point and it’s unlikely from our data that Boughton will lose the primary. It looks like he will hold on to his lead.” 

The Stefanowski Campaign is challenging the findings of the Tremont poll. It released a statement calling the poll statistically insignificant. It calls Hennessy a Democrat lobbyist and a Hartford insider. But Hennessy defends his polling. He says Stefanowski should make public his polling methods that show him ahead in the race.

The Tremont Poll surveyed 1151 Connecticut Republican voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent.

 

HBJ Covers Latest Tremont Poll

Survey: GOP gov. candidates gaining slightly on Boughton

Hartford Business Journal

BY Joe Cooper

8/10/2018

Three Republican candidates for governor have made "modest gains" on Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton ahead of the party's primary next week, according to a new survey.

In the online survey released Friday by public affairs firm Tremont Public Advisors, GOP endorsed Mark Boughton received 31.5 percent of support from Republican voters ahead of the primary on Tuesday.

Trailing are Bob Stefanowski (21.5 percent), the former chief financial officer of UBS Investment Bank; David Stemerman (17 percent), a former hedge fund manager from Greenwich; and Tim Herbst (15.6 percent), the former first selectman of Trumbull. Steve Obsitnik (11.4 percent) landed fifth in the poll.

 

Stefanowski, Stemerman and Herbst each shortened the gap between them and Boughton since Tremont's July 23 poll.

 

But despite the progress, Tremont Managing Director Matt Hennessy said the other Republican candidates "aren't gaining ground fast enough to catch Boughton."

 

"Absent the complete collapse of support for one of Boughton's rivals whose supporters then switch en masse to another candidate, or an unusual surge of new Trump voters on primary day, it appears Boughton will hold onto his lead," Hennessy said.

 

The survey identified New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart as the leading candidate for Connecticut's lieutenant governor post. A Tremont survey in April said Stewart, then running for governor, was the state's top governor candidate.

 

That survey also said almost 58 percent of Connecticut residents would rather select a Republican over a Democrat (39 percent) on Election Day Nov. 6.

 

The winner of Tuesday's GOP primary will face the winner of the Democratic gubernatorial race between Ned Lamont, a Greenwich businessman who won the party's endorsement, and Bridgeport Mayor Joe Ganim.

 

Tremont's latest survey drew from 1,151 self-identified and registered Republicans from Tuesday through Thursday this week.

TREMONT PUBLIC ADVISORS RELEASES FINAL POLL IN CT GOP PRIMARY

BOUGHTON HOLDS ON TO LEAD IN CLOSING DAYS OF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR

8/10/18

CONTACT: Tremont Public Advisors, 860-986-7737

 

Hartford – With four days to go until Connecticut Republicans vote to select their nominee for Governor, the final Tremont Public Advisors poll in the Republican Primary shows Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton leading the Republican field, even as three of his opponents chip away at his lead.

An on-line survey of 1,151 Connecticut Republicans showed Boughton receiving the support of 31.5% of Republicans giving him a double -digit lead over Bob Stefanowski (21.5%), David Stemerman (17%), Tim Herbst (15.6%) and Steve Obsitnik (11.4%).

“Stefanowski, Stemerman and Herbst have all made modest gains since our last survey, but they aren’t gaining ground fast enough to catch Boughton” stated Matt Hennessy the Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “Absent the complete collapse of support for one of Boughton’s rivals whose supporters then switch en masse to another candidate, or an unusual surge of new Trump voters on primary day, it appears Boughton will hold onto his lead.” Hennessy added

In a survey released earlier this week of the Republican under ticket, Tremont Public Advisors identified Lieutenant Governor candidate Erin Stewart. Attorney General candidate Sue Hatfield, Treasurer candidate Art Linares and Comptroller candidate Mark Greenberg as holding the leads in their respective primaries.

“Poll are a snapshot in time and are better suited to telling you the status of the election at a particular point rather than predicting the outcome. Additionally, closed party primary elections with multiple candidates and races where the leaders have the support of less than 50% of the respondents are notoriously fluid and difficult to poll. However, in the absence of consistent candidate polling by public interest groups or universities, we believe publicly sharing the data we have collected on voter preferences is valuable to those interested in the outcome of Connecticut elections.” Hennessy stated.

Survey Results

(Responses of those registered to vote as a Republican in Connecticut)

Q1: If the Republican primary for Governor of Connecticut was being held today, for whom would you vote?

                                                8/10                             7/23

Mark Boughton                     31.5%                         34.3%

Bob Stefanowski                    21.5%                          20%

David Stemerman                   17%                             14.6%

Tim Herbst                              15.6%                          14.5%

Steve Obsitnik                        11.4%                          11.6%

Don’t Know/Other                  3%                              5%

 

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs and Federal Lobbying firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut.

 

About Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors: Recognized as one of the top political consultants in the United States by Campaigns and Elections Magazine, Matt has served as an adviser to multiple campaigns for federal, state and local office, as well as a range of high profile corporations and organizations.

 

Methodology

Between 8/7/18 and 8/9/18 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,151 self- identified, Connecticut registered Republican voters using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices for candidates were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

 

The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.

New Poll Shows Leaders In Connecticut GOP Primary Races

Stewart, Linares, Hatfield, Greenberg Lead GOP Primary Field

8/6/18

Contact Tremont Public Advisors 860-986-7737

In the first publicly released head to head polling in the 2018 Republican Primary race for Lieutenant Governor, Treasurer, Attorney General and Comptroller, New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R), State Senator Art Linares (R), Assistant State’s Attorney Sue Hatfield (R) and Businessman Mark Greenberg (R) are leading their respective races in the sprint to the August 14th primary election day.

In a series of four on-line surveys conducted between 7/30-8/2/18 of 801-1,122 self-identified Connecticut Republicans, Tremont Public Advisors tested the likely outcome of the primary contests for: Lieutenant Governor between Erin Stewart, Joe Markley and Jayme Stevenson; Attorney General, between Sue Hatfield and John Shaban; the contest for Treasurer, between Art Linares and Thad Gray; and Comptroller between Mark Greenberg and Kurt Miller.

This is what we found:

·         In the Lieutenant Governor’s race, Stewart has a solid lead over endorsed candidate Senator Joe Markley, who leads Jayme Stevenson.

·         Sue Hatfield, the endorsed Republican, has a wide lead over challenger John Shaban in the primary for Attorney General.

·         In the contest for Treasurer, Art Linares is leading the endorsed candidate Thad Gray.

·         Businessman Mark Greenberg has a solid lead over Kurt Miller in the race for Comptroller

 “With only a week to go before the Republican Primary election, it looks like front runners in each of the Republican under ticket races have emerged. Interestingly, only one of the Republican candidates endorsed at the Convention, Sue Hatfield, is leading her race. For a variety of reasons specific to their candidacies, the challengers are making a strong showing.” Stated Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors.

“Erin Stewart, came into her race off a potential run for Governor with name recognition and a profile as a young urban Mayor that is attractive to many voters. Linares was quick to jump on an issue that excites a sizeable portion of the Republican base concerning a town official kneeling during the Pledge of Allegiance. Greenberg is benefitting from his profile as a businessman and higher name recognition than his opponent.” stated Hennessy.

 

Survey Results

(Respondents who self-identified as registered Republican voters in Connecticut)

Q. 1(A) If the Republican Primary Election for Connecticut Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote? (1,122 responses)

Erin E. Stewart         42%

Joe Markley                 31%

Jayme Stevenson        21%

Don’t Know/Other      6%

 

Q. 1(B) If the Republican Primary Election for Connecticut Treasurer were held today, for whom would you vote? (836 responses)

Art Linares                53%

Thad Gray                   46%

Don’t Know/Other      1%

 

Q. 1(C) If the Republican Primary Election for Connecticut Attorney General were held today, for whom would you vote? (817 responses)

Sue Hatfield               59%

John Shaban                39%

Don’t Know/Other      2%

 

Q. 1(D) If the Republican Primary Election for Connecticut Comptroller were held today, for whom would you vote? (801 responses)

Mark Greenberg       55%

Kurt Miller                  45%

Don’t Know/Other      1%

*Rounding may produce results  +/- 100%

About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs and Federal Lobbying firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut.

 

Methodology

Between 7/30/18 and 8/2/18 Tremont Public Advisors conducted four concurrent surveys of 801-1,122 self- identified, Connecticut registered Republican voters using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices for candidates were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%.

Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.

The pool was designed and administered by Tremont Public Advisors LLC and paid for by Cooper Communications, LLC.