BOUGHTON HOLDS ON TO LEAD IN CLOSING DAYS OF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR
8/10/18
CONTACT: Tremont Public Advisors, 860-986-7737
Hartford – With four days to go until Connecticut Republicans vote to select their nominee for Governor, the final Tremont Public Advisors poll in the Republican Primary shows Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton leading the Republican field, even as three of his opponents chip away at his lead.
An on-line survey of 1,151 Connecticut Republicans showed Boughton receiving the support of 31.5% of Republicans giving him a double -digit lead over Bob Stefanowski (21.5%), David Stemerman (17%), Tim Herbst (15.6%) and Steve Obsitnik (11.4%).
“Stefanowski, Stemerman and Herbst have all made modest gains since our last survey, but they aren’t gaining ground fast enough to catch Boughton” stated Matt Hennessy the Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “Absent the complete collapse of support for one of Boughton’s rivals whose supporters then switch en masse to another candidate, or an unusual surge of new Trump voters on primary day, it appears Boughton will hold onto his lead.” Hennessy added
In a survey released earlier this week of the Republican under ticket, Tremont Public Advisors identified Lieutenant Governor candidate Erin Stewart. Attorney General candidate Sue Hatfield, Treasurer candidate Art Linares and Comptroller candidate Mark Greenberg as holding the leads in their respective primaries.
“Poll are a snapshot in time and are better suited to telling you the status of the election at a particular point rather than predicting the outcome. Additionally, closed party primary elections with multiple candidates and races where the leaders have the support of less than 50% of the respondents are notoriously fluid and difficult to poll. However, in the absence of consistent candidate polling by public interest groups or universities, we believe publicly sharing the data we have collected on voter preferences is valuable to those interested in the outcome of Connecticut elections.” Hennessy stated.
Survey Results
(Responses of those registered to vote as a Republican in Connecticut)
Q1: If the Republican primary for Governor of Connecticut was being held today, for whom would you vote?
8/10 7/23
Mark Boughton 31.5% 34.3%
Bob Stefanowski 21.5% 20%
David Stemerman 17% 14.6%
Tim Herbst 15.6% 14.5%
Steve Obsitnik 11.4% 11.6%
Don’t Know/Other 3% 5%
About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs and Federal Lobbying firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut.
About Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors: Recognized as one of the top political consultants in the United States by Campaigns and Elections Magazine, Matt has served as an adviser to multiple campaigns for federal, state and local office, as well as a range of high profile corporations and organizations.
Methodology
Between 8/7/18 and 8/9/18 Tremont Public Advisors conducted a survey of 1,151 self- identified, Connecticut registered Republican voters using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices for candidates were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 3%.
Gender, age and location of the survey respondents were inferred by data correlated to the I.P. address of the respondent. The survey used statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall adult sample is weighted based on U.S. Census data using a procedure to match the demographic makeup of the target population of Connecticut internet users by gender, age and geography.
The survey was designed and paid for by Tremont Public Advisors, LLC.