Tremont Director on Rubio Campaign

Marco Rubio Energizes Republicans At Annual Prescott Bush Dinner

By Christopher Keating contact the reporter

June 5, 2015

STAMFORD — Republican presidential candidate Marco Rubio energized the audience of more than 800 at the party's biggest fundraiser Thursday night, leading many to say he can defeat Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016.

Rubio, a U.S. senator from Florida, received a standing ovation after a 23-minute keynote speech at the 37th annual Prescott Bush Awards Dinner, the marquee fundraising event for state Republicans.

"The time has come for a new generation of leaders," Rubio told the sold-out crowd. "We are just one election away from a néw American century. That"s why I'm running for president."

Citing his humble roots, Rubio told the audience in a large hotel ballroom that his father worked for decades at a portable bar "in the back of a room like this so one day I could stand before you on an evening like this."

Without mentioning Clinton by name, he took jabs at the Democratic presidential front-runner.

"I don't have a family foundation that raised over $2 billion from Wall Street and foreign interests," Rubio said. "The biggest debt I have is to America."

After his speech, Rubio shook hands with those on the dais, including former U.S. Rep. Rob Simmons, and left the ballroom immediately. He had to catch a plane in 90 minutes for a campaign flight.

Rubio has emphasized his youth and energy in the race against Clinton, 67.

"The truth is I'm 44 years old, but I feel like I'm 45," Rubio said as the crowd laughed.

Contributors paid as much as $5,000 per person for a VIP reception, photo and seating near Rubio. Dinner tickets were $250 per person at the Crowne Plaza hotel on Summer Street, the same site where George H. W. Bush had been the keynote speaker more than 20 years ago. The dinner is named for George H.W. Bush's father, Prescott Bush, a U.S. senator from Greenwich.

Rubio said that as president he would protect the rights of gun owners, remove the marriage penalty in the federal tax code, end cuts to the American military and "help the nation of Israel prosper as a Jewish state."

Former Republican State Chairman Chris Healy said he wants Rubio as the vice presidential candidate in a crowded Republican presidential field. At this early stage, Healy is supporting Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has gained national attention for clashing with unions in his home state and winning three elections in four years.

"Marco Rubio, like Walker, represents not only the future of the party, but of the country,'' Healy said. "Rubio has such great skills in communicating the true nature of the country. ... He speaks without notes, extemporaneously and with great timing and conviction.''

Healy, who recruited keynote speakers during his years as party chairman, said, "I think it's a great catch for the party to have Rubio."

Democrats around the country have been quoted as saying that Rubio could be a tough match for Clinton because of his compelling personal story, energy and youth.

Longtime Hartford Democratic strategist Matthew Hennessy said it is still unclear whether Rubio can withstand the national media spotlight.

"From a Democratic perspective, the challenge that Rubio presents is he has this immigrant background story," Hennessy said Thursday. "He is an attractive Latino candidate for a party that has alienated the vast majority of Latinos in this country. That is an important constituency for the Democrats. ... He has been demonstrating some real excitement for the Republican Party. The Republican bench is usually older, white men who don't appeal to a younger age group."

Hennessy cited questions raised about Rubio's ties to 82-year-old Florida billionaire Norman Braman, who has helped his political career with major campaign contributions and hired Rubio's wife at his charitable foundation. Rubio, who was once hired by Braman as a lawyer, has said that Braman is a father figure and there are no conflicts of interest.

"The question is whether he can withstand scrutiny in the Republican primary," Hennessy said. "He does have this background that needs to be fleshed out.''

Also, the candidates he will be battling are conservative Republicans who are known as reliable in primaries. "Does [U.S. Sen.] Ted Cruz force Rubio further right than he wants to go?'' Hennessy asked.

In a conference call with reporters before Rubio's speech, Democratic State Chairman Nick Balletto described Rubio as "an extreme Republican" who opposes raising the minimum wage, wants to repeal Obamacare and favors cutting taxes for the rich.

 

Wall Street Journal On Race for Governor

Star Power Drawn to Race in Connecticut

Obama Campaigned for Malloy Sunday, and Christie Was to Stump for Foley Monday

By

Joseph De Avila

Nov. 2, 2014 9:45 p.m. ET

WALL STREET JOURNAL

MANCHESTER, Conn.—Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy and Republican Tom Foley were summoning high-powered surrogates to Connecticut for the final sprint of their tight race for governor.

President Barack Obama rallied with Mr. Malloy on Sunday in Bridgeport, and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie on Monday was scheduled to make his fifth campaign stop in the state with Mr. Foley, who is in the midst of a 25-city bus tour.

Mr. Malloy, 59 years old, a former mayor of Stamford, and Mr. Foley, 62, a businessman from Greenwich and a former U.S. ambassador to Ireland, each received 43% support in an Oct. 29 poll of likely voters conducted by Quinnipiac University.

In the two candidates’ first matchup in 2010, Mr. Malloy beat Mr. Foley by about 6,400 votes out of 1.146 million cast. In the rematch, neither candidate has been able to establish a meaningful lead, and polls show neither has an enviable favorability rating among voters.

“The central dynamic of the campaign is that Gov. Malloy has been vulnerable,” said Douglas Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. At the same time, he said, Mr. Foley “hasn’t exploited the vulnerability.”

Another layer of uncertainty was added to the race on Sunday, as conservative third-party candidate Joe Visconti said he was dropping out and endorsing Mr. Foley. Mr. Visconti, a Second Amendment advocate, polled at 7% in the most recent Quinnipiac survey. When the poll was recalculated without Mr. Visconti, Mr. Foley had 46% of the vote and Mr. Malloy had 45%.

Mr. Foley has focused his campaign on Mr. Malloy’s stewardship of the economy, but he hasn’t effectively communicated how he would lead the state, said Matthew Hennessy, a Democratic strategist unaffiliated with the Malloy campaign.

That has left Mr. Foley vulnerable to attacks from the Malloy campaign that have painted the Republican as an out-of-touch businessman, he said.

Yet Mr. Malloy has struggled to change the minds of voters about his job performance, particularly on the economy, Mr. Hennessy said. “You put that all together and you don’t see an opportunity for someone to break away,” he said.

The Oct. 29 Quinnipiac survey found that 52% of respondents had a negative view of Mr. Malloy, which Mr. Schwartz said largely could be attributed to the $1.5 billion tax increase the governor signed into law in 2011.

Art Kean, a Foley supporter who owns a gas station in New Canaan, greeted the Republican candidate with a handshake Friday during a stop on Mr. Foley’s bus tour. “This state is taxed too high,” said Mr. Kean, 65.

Mr. Foley had a 43% unfavorable rating, according to the latest Quinnipiac poll. That was better than Mr. Malloy’s, but still not great, Mr. Schwartz said.

Mary LaRoux, 58, of Manchester, said Mr. Malloy has made progress fixing the state’s fiscal problems, particularly when he closed the $3.6 billion budget deficit he inherited in 2011 after Republican Gov. Jodi Rell left office. “The Democrats clean up what the Republicans did,” Ms. LaRoux said.

Connecticut’s unemployment rate of 6.4% still lags behind the national figure of 5.9%. But the state added 11,500 jobs in September, the largest single-month gain in 20 years.

Mr. Malloy said in an interview in Manchester that the job gains showed that the state was on the rebound. “I don’t think people understand how much the economy is getting better, in part because my opponent is telling them it’s not,” he said.

Mr. Foley played down September’s job gains in an appearance Friday at Stamford’s Bulls Head Diner. “We still have one of the worst job recovery rates of any state in the country,” said Mr. Foley.

Unlike in 2010, when Mr. Foley spent $11 million on his campaign, the race this year is evenly matched financially. Both men participated in the state’s campaign-finance program, which limits them each to $6.5 million for the general election. Outside groups spent more than $16 million on the race in support of both candidates, with Mr. Malloy receiving slightly greater support.

Analysts say the tightness of the Malloy-Foley race highlights the nature of the state’s voters—fiscally conservative but socially liberal.

They prefer Democratic presidents and Democratic representatives in Congress who will advocate for liberal social issues, said William Salka, chairman of the department of political science, philosophy and geography at Eastern Connecticut State University. That meant easy victories for Connecticut Democrats running for U.S. Senate in 2010 and 2012.

“But when it comes to the governor, that fiscal conservatism kicks in,” Mr. Salka said. “There are a lot of people who are concerned with a Democrat in the governor’s mansion and a Democratic majority in the house and Senate and what that means for spending and for taxes.”

Republicans controlled the governor’s mansion in Connecticut from 1995 to 2010.

 

GOVERNING MAGAZINE ON NATIONAL MAYOR'S RACES

Democrats, Women and LGBT Win Big in 2015 Mayoral Races

by Alan Greenblatt | November 4, 2015

Most mayors who were on the ballot Tuesday easily won re-election, but incumbents were ousted in Salt Lake City and Portland, Maine.

In Philadelphia, Democrat Jim Kenney was elected mayor, as expected. Meanwhile, the mayors of San Francisco; Orlando, Fla.; Fort Wayne, Ind.; Spokane, Wash.; Toledo, Ohio; and Boise, Idaho; all won new terms.

In Bridgeport, Conn., Joseph Ganim staged a comeback despite having served seven years in prison following a corruption conviction. Before serving time, Ganim was the mayor from 1991 to 2003.

Luke Bronin, who had unseated Hartford, Conn., Mayor Pedro Segara in that city's Democratic victory, won victory outright on Tuesday. "Bronin, with the full support of the governor and over $1 million, ran a very competent campaign for the primary to defeat the incumbent, and as a result won the general with no real opposition," said Matt Hennessy, a Democratic consultant based in Hartford.

 

http://www.governing.com/topics/elections/gov-election-2015-mayoral-race-results.html

Campaigns & Elections Magazine Names Hennessy Top Political Consultant

Hartford – Matthew Hennessy, Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors has been named to Campaigns & Elections Magazine’s “Influencers 500” list of the top U.S. political consultants from both parties. In compiling the list, Campaigns & Elections magazine conducted more than 100 interviews with consultants, journalists and political insiders from across the country. The result, which they called “The Influencers 500”, is a collection of some of the top names in the consulting business state by state. C&E named the consultants, lobbyists and strategists who are influential in their home states- the folks with influence in primaries and the state-specific campaigns. As C&E stated in the article, “the one thing we're certain of is that the names on the following pages are the folks you need to talk to in state capitals across the country.”

http://www.cloudcontactcenterzone.com/news/2013/01/22/6868856.htm

Tremont Director on Predicitve Modeling of Voter Behavior in Race for U.S. Senate 

Thursday, September 12, 2013

Crossing Party Lines with Predictive Modeling

With the rise of Nate Silver and the emergence of mainstream data science, we've seen many uses for predictive analytics, including the entrance of predictive modeling into the political arena. Actually, although predicting election results is a booming business now, it has been around for quite some time. 

I recently got the chance to talk to Matt Hennessy, Managing Director at Tremont Public Advisors, about a campaign he worked on for Joe Lieberman in 2006, and how they implemented predictive modeling for a successful Senate election. For those who are interested, we'll be discussing this and other examples of predictive modeling in action in a webinar on Tuesday, September 17th. 

Can you give us some background on the 2006 Senate election?

In 2006 in Connecticut, Joe Lieberman was up for reelection to the Senate as a Democrat. He had been the Vice Presidential nominee in the 2000 election and had taken a position supporting the Iraq war which upset a lot of the Democratic base. He wound up losing the Democratic primary to Ned Lamont who won on a big anti-war push. Once Lieberman lost the primary election, he lost access to a considerable amount of infrastructure – union support, door to door field workers, and all of the other boots on the ground that he would have had were all gone. He lost most of his staff except for the people who had been there for a decade or two. He needed to figure out how to replace some of the advantages he’d had with other resources out there.

As someone advising him, I saw that we had a problem: without a field operation and all of those bodies, we didn’t know exactly who we wanted to get out the vote and who the likely voters for Lieberman were. We had a very expensive polling operation going which  was using the conventional method to reach some conclusions about which demographics were most likely to vote, but we decided that we needed something more.

http://rapidinsight.blogspot.com/2013/09/crossing-party-lines-with-predictive.html#links

Tremont Part of Effort to Fund Lifesaving Burn Product

State firm uses old-style lobbying to sell cutting-edge product

By: Deirdre Shesgreen | August 10, 2011

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WASHINGTON--A Westport-based bio-medical company is immersed in an unusual lobbying campaign, trying to sell a high-tech burn remedy to counter-terrorism experts in Washington who decide what to buy for the government's public-health-emergency stockpile.

But while the product and the company, Advanced BioHealing, may be cutting edge, their Washington strategy is old-school. To press their case, they've hired a sophisticated public relations firm and a cadre of politically-connected lobbyists--including Matthew Hennessy, a former aide to Sen. Joseph Lieberman. Lieberman, chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, is among several Connecticut legislators urging the government to stockpile the company's medical cure.

In addition to Hennessy, whose company website features a photo of him with Lieberman and Bill Clinton, ABH has also brought on the Glover Park Group, a communications firm stocked with politically-wired media strategists, including several who worked for the Clinton White House.

http://ctmirror.org/2011/08/10/state-firm-uses-old-style-lobbying-sell-cutting-edge-product/

Tremont Director Quoted in Governing Magazine

The Waning Power of State Political Parties

They’re far from irrelevant, but campaign financing laws have hurt their influence.

Parties also play a unique role in coordinating activity and messaging between candidates at all levels, from legislators to the presidency. “A super PAC can fill the airwaves and Internet with effective, targeted negative messaging, but it cannot activate party supporters, who rely on local elected officials for guidance, support and patronage,” says Matt Hennessy, a Democratic consultant.

http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-waning-power-state-parties.html

 

Hennessy Weighs in on Republican Campaign in the Wall Street Journal

Connecticut Republicans Trade Barbs as Primary Nears

Businessman Foley Is Front-Runner Over Senate Leader McKinney

By

Joseph De Avila, Wall Street Journal

Updated Aug. 7, 2014 8:30 p.m. ET

STAMFORD, Conn.—John McKinney says his fellow Republican Tom Foley had his shot to be Connecticut governor four years ago and blew it.

Mr. Foley lost that 2010 election to Democratic Gov. Dannel Malloy by about 6,400 votes out of 1.146 million cast. Now he and Mr. McKinney will face each other Tuesday in the GOP gubernatorial primary.

"Tom's never won an election," said Mr. McKinney, the state Senate minority leader. "He ran four years ago and lost the race." He added that "2010 was a very strong year for Republicans, and he was unable to beat Dan Malloy."

The state's Republicans say they are poised to replace Mr. Malloy after one term, citing the $1.5 billion in tax increases he signed into law in 2011 and his lukewarm job-approval figures.

Mr. Foley has been conducting a "buyer's remorse" campaign: He argues the state would have been better off had he won the governorship in 2010. In casting himself as an outsider, he has accused Mr. McKinney of embracing what he called "big government" policies as a state legislator in Hartford.

"He's a career politician," said Mr. Foley, 62 years old, a businessman who lives in Greenwich. "He's never run anything. He has none of the management, decision-making and problem-solving experience, leadership experience I have ... . I think people are looking for a change."

Mr. McKinney, 50, stresses his ability to win elections (he has been elected eight times) and to work with Democrats, including his role in passing a law in 2013 that tightened gun regulations following the shooting at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school.

Mr. Foley enters Tuesday's contest as the favorite. He retained much of his name recognition from 2010 when he spent about $11 million of his own money on the campaign, and he earned the party's endorsement in May. He also has been critical of the laws passed after the Newtown shooting.

Those factors will make it difficult for Mr. McKinney to win over conservative voters Tuesday, said Matthew Hennessy, a Democratic political consultant unconnected with Mr. Malloy's campaign. "All those things basically say that [Mr. Foley] is going to be the winner on primary day," Mr. Hennessy said.

What few polls have been conducted in the primary show Mr. Foley with a wide lead. Political observers say primary polling is spotty at best, and unexpected results on voting day aren't uncommon.

"Foley has a strong lead, but primary elections are somewhat unpredictable because you aren't relying on the public, you are relying on" a party's most devoted base, said Paul Herrnson, executive director of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut.

Both Messrs. McKinney and Foley opted to participate in the state's campaign-finance program, which gives them each $1.35 million in taxpayer money to spend on the primary. In 2010, Mr. Foley spent about $3.77 million on the primary—mostly his own money—campaign finance records show.

Mr. Foley made his name running private-equity firm NTC Group. He served as an ambassador to Ireland under the George W. Bush administration. He was also a prominent fundraiser for Mr. Bush and for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential bid.

Mr. McKinney grew up in a political household. His father is the late U.S. Rep. Stewart McKinney, who represented Connecticut's fourth congressional district from 1971 to 1987.

Both GOP candidates are socially liberal, supporting abortion rights and gay marriage. Both say Mr. Malloy's fiscal policies have made the state unfriendly to business.

One issue on which they differ is on how to reduce taxes. Mr. McKinney proposes eliminating the state income tax in fiscal year 2017 for filers earning below $75,000. Mr. Foley favors a reduction of the state's 6.35% sales tax to 5.85%, which he says would boost the economy more than Mr. McKinney's plan.

Connecticut also faces an estimated $1.28 billion budget deficit for the fiscal year that begins on July 1, 2015, according to the state's nonpartisan Office of Fiscal Analysis.

That estimate assumes that state spending will rise by about 7%. Mr. Foley says his proposal to hold spending flat would eliminate the deficit, but hasn't released details. Mr. McKinney says he would cut spending by $1.4 billion.

Mr. McKinney's Senate district includes Newtown, where 26 people were slain by gunman Adam Lanza on Dec. 14, 2012, at Sandy Hook Elementary School. Mr. McKinney's vote on the gun-law package could hurt him with conservative firearms owners in the primary. The gun issue hasn't been a problem for Mr. Foley, who has said the laws didn't adequately address mental-health issues.

Mr. Malloy provides an Election Day upset model for Mr. McKinney. Mr. Malloy overcame a nine percentage-point deficit in the polls to beat Ned Lamont in the 2010 Democratic primary. The difference for Mr. Malloy was a late burst of support from labor groups, though Mr. Hennessy doesn't forecast such a dynamic this year.

"There is no Republican constituency that I can see being electrified by McKinney," Mr. Hennessy said.