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In the first publicly released head to head polling in the 2018 race for Governor of Connecticut, New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) and Businessman Ned Lamont (D) are emerging as the strongest candidates from their respective parties.
In a series of five surveys of 550 Connecticut residents, Tremont Public Advisors tested the likely outcome if Ned Lamont (D) or former Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz (D), were to face either Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton (R) or New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) on the November ballot. The candidates were chosen based on their strength in previous polling.
Tremont also tested resident support for a “generic” Republican or Democrat candidate on the ballot.
This is what we found:
· In head to head match ups, Stewart beats Bysiewicz and edges Lamont.
· Lamont outperforms the “generic” Democratic candidate for Governor, beats Boughton and is in a virtual tie with Stewart.
· Boughton tops Bysiewicz.
· Connecticut residents continue to have a slight preference for a “generic” Republican candidate for governor over a Democrat.
“Polls are just a snapshot in time, but the picture is looking good for Erin Stewart and Ned Lamont if they are the nominees of their parties for governor in November.”, stated Matthew Hennessy the Managing Director of Tremont Public Advisors. “With six months to go before the November election it appears Lamont and Stewart are starting to get the attention of the voters.”
“Lamont’s string of endorsements and consolidation of Democratic party support is helping firm up his support in the polls. Stewart’s outsider status in a Republican field of male candidates attempting to gain the support of the conservative party base, is benefiting her with general election voters.” Hennessy stated further.
“Though either party has a chance to take the Governor’s Mansion in November, the contours of the November race are starting to emerge. The successful candidate will have the ability to capture some of the other party’s base. Lamont could be attractive to pro-business Republicans and Stewart could be attractive to women voters who make up the largest base of support for Democrats.” Hennessy stated.
Q. 1(A) If the 2018 election for Governor of Connecticut were held today, for whom would you vote?
The Republican Candidate 49.9%
The Democratic Candidate 43.4%
Don’t Know/Other 6.7%
Q. 1(B) If the 2018 election for Governor of Connecticut were held today, for whom would you vote?
Ned Lamont (Democrat) 49.7%
Mark Boughton (Republican) 39.6%
Don’t Know/Other 10.7%
Q. 1(C) If the 2018 election for Governor of Connecticut were held today, for whom would you vote?
Susan Bysiewicz (Democrat) 42.3%
Mark Boughton (Republican) 47.2%
Don’t Know/Other 10.5%
Q. 1(D) If the 2018 election for Governor of Connecticut were held today, for whom would you vote?
Erin Stewart (Republican) 46.2%
Ned Lamont (Democrat) 44.2%
Don’t Know/Other 9.6%
Q1. (E) If the 2018 election for Governor of Connecticut were held today, for whom would you vote?
Susan Bysiewicz (Democrat) 40.1%
Erin Stewart (Republican) 50.1%
Don’t Know/Other 9.8%
About Tremont Public Advisors, LLC: Tremont Public Advisors is a leading Public Affairs and Federal Lobbying firm in Washington D.C. and Hartford, Connecticut.
Between 5/3/18 and 5/5/18 Tremont Public Advisors conducted five concurrent single question surveys of 550 Connecticut residents each, over the age of 18 using an on-line survey platform. Respondents were allowed to take the survey only once and were restricted from choosing more than one answer. The answer choices for candidates were shown in a random order. The poll population consisted of Connecticut internet users viewing content on a network of web publisher sites on both mobile and desktop devices. To correct for sampling bias after the survey is run, weighting was used to upweight under-represented groups and down-weight overrepresented groups using U.S. Census data. The survey answers have a MMOE of no more than +/- 4.5%.
Two Republican and two Democratic candidates for governor were tested against each other in four of the surveys and a “generic” Democrat and Republican candidate were tested against each other in the fifth survey. In all surveys, respondents not wishing to choose one of the named candidates could write in their response.